000 AXNT20 KNHC 091754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends southwest to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01N30W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W and 33W and north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 33W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the FL Big Bend to 28N90W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front extending to about 60 nm offshore South Padre Island. No significant convection is associated with this front. Mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds are behind this boundary with 1 to 3 ft seas. Gentle to moderate N-NE breezes and slight seas cover the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will lift NE as a warm front through Wed night. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front over the northwest Gulf Thu night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated with a 1025 mb Bermuda High continues to sustain a mainly moderate easterly trade-wind pattern across the eastern and central basin with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas of 5-6 ft are evident in the SW basin. The northwest basin is experiencing gentle trades and 2 to 4 ft seas due to a lighter pressure gradient. For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will support the continuation of moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean today, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds over most of the basin today through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase again to moderate to fresh speeds over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front that will move into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front emerging off the SE U.S. coast enters the area near 31N80W and extends southwest to Jacksonville, FL. A surface trough ahead of this boundary, in combination with an upper-level disturbance, is generating a strong line of convection that stretches from 31N71W to the N Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the trough north of 27N and west of 70W, while strong E-NE winds are behind the trough north of 27N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the area. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N44W to 27N50W, where the boundary becomes stationary and stretches along 25N to near the central Bahamas. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the cold front north of 29N and west of 30W. High pressure behind the front is allowing for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 25N, where seas remain near 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas cover the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken and dissipate later today. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into tonight, mainly south of 22N. The front moving off the SE U.S. coast will weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and waves will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat. $$ Mora