000 AXNT20 KNHC 090550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jan 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Freetown, Sierra Leone then passes through a 1012 mb low near 02N18W to 01N21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near these features from the Equator to 07N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 21W. An ITCZ continues from 01N21W through 02N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southwestward from the Louisiana coast near Lake Charles to southwest of New Orleans near 28N93W, then continues as a stationary front to just south of Brownsville, Texas. A pre-frontal trough runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf. Scattered showers are present near and behind the fronts over the northwestern Gulf, and also near the trough across the northeastern Gulf. A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms at the west-central Gulf. Another surface trough is causing similar conditions at the eastern Gulf of Campeche. Moderate N to NE winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are found over the northwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold/stationary front will stall over the northern and eastern Gulf Mon through early Tue, and then lift northeastward as a warm front late Tue through Wed night. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front over the northwestern Gulf Thu night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz Fri behind the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1025 mb Bermuda High continues to sustain a easterly trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are evident at the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are seen over the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will prolong moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean tonight, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Winds will diminish to between gentle and moderate over most of the basin Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase again, reaching moderate to fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N49W to well north of Puerto Rico at 25N66W, then continues westward as a stationary front across the central Bahamas to near northwestern Cuba. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 40 nm north of this boundary east of 71W. West of 71W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 100 nm north of the stationary front, including the northwestern Bahamas and Florida Straits. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted farther east of the cold front north of 26N between 46W and 51W. A surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern coast of Hispaniola. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SW to NW winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are found near the cold front, north of 29N between 49W and 57W. Otherwise, the surface ridge associated with the Azores and Bermuda Highs is sustaining gentle to moderate easterly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in northerly swell north of 27N between the northwest African coast and 65W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present north of 20N between 65W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident from 03N to 27N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles/65W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will shift east of 55W Mon morning, while the stationary portion dissipates. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into Mon night mainly south of 22N. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and waves will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat. $$ Forecaster Chan