000
AXNT20 KNHC 081746
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03N30W to 
03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 210 nm 
on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A weak cold front moved off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf 
this morning. As of 1500 UTC, the boundary stretches from the 
TX/LA border to near Corpus Christi, TX. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are movings ESE, just ahead of the cold front. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate return flow continues to dominate 
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3 to 4 ft 
basin-wide. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the southeast U.S. 
will shift east today as the cold front moves over the northwest 
Gulf later this morning. The front will stall over the northern 
Gulf tonight and dissipate early Mon. Light to gentle variable 
winds will dominate the basin afterward through Thu morning when 
a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of 
Texas. Fresh southerly flow
will return to the Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, 
and strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front over 
the northwest Gulf Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of 
the area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting 
moderate to fresh easterly winds across the majority of the 
basin, with 
localized strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia and in the 
Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except to 8 ft across 
Colombia's offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will support 
the continuation of moderate to fresh winds in the NW, SW, and 
central Caribbean through tonight, with locally strong winds in 
the Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Looking ahead, 
winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds over most of 
the basin Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens and 
shifts eastward. Winds will increase again to moderate to fresh 
speeds for the western half of the basin by Wed night and 
prevail across the central Caribbean through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N70W, where it transitions 
to a stationary front near 26N67W and extends to the central 
Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front N 
of 27N and west of 45W. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the 
front N of 30N and east of 70W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Mainly 
moderate NE winds are behind the remainder of the boundary. A 
recent scatterometer pass also noted moderate to fresh trades 
west south of 23N to the Caribbean Islands and west of 64W to 
the Florida Straits. A surface trough is just east of the region 
of fresh winds and is supporting scattered showers just N of the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. 

Otherwise, the remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the 
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered 
west of the Canary Islands near 30N23W.  The pressure gradient 
between this high pressure center and lower pressures over the 
deep tropics is supporting mainly fresh NE to E trades over much 
of the eastern and central Atlantic from 04N to 23N and between 
the W coast of Africa and 53W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move to the 
central Atlantic waters tonight while the 
stationary tail end of the front dissipates. High pressure 
building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade 
winds into Mon night, mainly south of 22N. Looking ahead, 
another 
front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then 
weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the 
Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into 
the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and reach from 
31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu.

$$
Mora