823 
AXNT20 KNHC 081031
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W 
to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 02N32W to 02N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 210 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

High pressure centered over northern Florida dominates the 
weather pattern, providing light to gentle variable winds over 
the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere. Seas 
are 3 to 4 ft basin-wide. Otherwise, a cold front is starting to
come off the coast of Texas and is supporting scattered showers to
the NW offshore waters N of 27N.  

For the forecast, the high pressure over the southeast U.S. will 
shift east today ahead of a cold front expected to move off the 
Texas coast into the northwest Gulf later this morning. The front 
will stall over the northern Gulf tonight and dissipate early Mon.
Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward 
through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge
off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the 
Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the area 
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to 
fresh easterly winds across the majority of the basin with  
localized strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia and in the
Windward Passage. Seas are 4-6 ft, except to 8 ft across Colombia
offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging building in the wake of a cold 
front in the SW N Atlantic waters will support the continuation of
moderate to fresh winds in the NW, SW and central Caribbean 
through tonight, with locally strong winds in the Windward 
Passage and off the Colombian coast. Looking ahead, winds will 
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds over most of the basin Mon 
through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. 
Winds will increase again to moderate to fresh speeds for the 
western half of the basin by Wed night and prevail across the 
central gulf through Thu night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Former stationary front has transitioned back to a cold front 
extending from 31N59W SW to 25N68W where the tail end of the front
stalls towards the central Bahamas adjacent waters. Moderate to
fresh winds are either side of the front affecting the waters N of
28N between 42W and 72W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are also
affecting the Bahamas and adjacent waters W of 65W and S of 27N.
Ahead of the front, a surface trough supports scattered showers
across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Otheriwse, the remainder
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered west of the Canary Islands
near 30N26W.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move to the 
central Atlantic waters tonight while the stationary tail end of 
the front dissipates. High pressure building behind the front will
support moderate to fresh trade winds into Mon night mainly south
of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast 
Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall as it 
reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A 
reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the 
previous front, and reach from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu.

$$
Ramos