000
AXNT20 KNHC 080358
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W 
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 10N40W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N, between 17W and 
28W. Similar convection is also observed from 02N to 05N, 
between 37W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

High pressure centered over northern Florida dominates the 
weather pattern. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf. 
Winds are moderate elsewhere with southerlies in the western 
Gulf and easterlies in the southern Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the 
NE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the southeast U.S. 
will shift east overnight ahead of a cold front expected to move 
off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun morning. The 
front will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the 
northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will 
stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through 
Tue night. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast 
Wed into Thu. Another front may move off the Texas coast by Thu 
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are observed in the NW 
Caribbean, off the coast of Belize and Mexico. The gradient 
between subtropical high pressure north of the area and lower 
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh 
easterly winds across the majority of the basin. A localized 
area of strong NE winds is noted off the coast of Colombia. Seas 
are 7-9 ft in this area of strong winds, 6-8 ft in the remainder 
of the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.  

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will 
continue to support fresh winds south of Cuba, Hispaniola and in 
Windward Passage tonight, with fresh to locally strong winds off 
the Colombian coast through Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and 
seas will diminish over most of the basin Mon through the middle 
of next week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends from 31N62W to central Cuba. NW of 
the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the north with 3-5 
ft seas. SE of the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the 
S-E with 4-6 ft seas. A surface trough extends across the Virgin 
Islands from 23N63W to 16N65W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the 
basin is dominated by a 1030 mb high centered near 30N35W. North 
of 23N, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 
23N, winds are moderate to fresh from the east with 6-9 ft seas. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 
31N61W SW to central Cuba. The portion of the front N of 25N 
will transition back to a cold front tonight and move to the 
central Atlantic waters Sun night while the stationary tail end 
of the front dissipates. High pressure building behind the front 
will support moderate to fresh trade winds into Mon night mainly 
south of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the 
northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall 
as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A 
reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the 
previous front, and reach from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late 
Thu.

$$ 
Flynn