000 AXNT20 KNHC 070353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Libera near 05N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N, between 21W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure in the NE Gulf, centered near 29N87W, dominates the weather pattern. Fresh S-SE are in the NW Gulf with 4-5 ft seas. Fresh E winds are in the southern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5-7 ft in these areas. Winds are light to gentle near the high in the NE Gulf with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will persist across much of the southern Gulf through Sat morning in the wake of a former cold front. Southerly flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These winds will diminish through Sat night ahead of the next front which will move off the Texas coast Sun morning. The front will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a cold front has entered the far NW Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed along the front. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh E-NE trade winds across the majority of the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and 4-6 in the NW Caribbean, except 5-7 ft the Yucatan Channel. A localized area of strong winds offshore Colombia is generating seas to 9 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds persist in tropical Atlantic waters with 7-9 ft seas. These conditions are impacting the Atlantic side of the Lesser Antilles and exposed passages between the Islands. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun night. A weak cold front entering the Yucatan Channel will dissipate through Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Cuba through Sun evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over most of the basin through the early part of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N69W, across the Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed along the front, north of 27W. Moderate NW winds are observed behind the front, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate S to SW winds are observed ahead of the front, with 4-6 ft seas. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 31N41W. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis, gradually increasing to fresh easterlies south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and 6-10 ft south of 20N. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N69W SW to Andros Island and western Cuba. The portion of the front north of 25N will continue to move east of the area through late Sat, with the southern portion stalling across the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating Mon. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into early next week mainly south of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. The front will dissipate Tue night, ahead of a third, stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Wed. $$ Flynn