330 AXNT20 KNHC 062304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N50W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure ridge is building in the wake of the front across the gulf waters. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin with seas in the 2-4 range across the northern half of the basin and 4-6 ft range in the southern half. For the forecast, the front will stall then dissipate through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will persist across much of the southern Gulf in the wake of the front through Sat morning. Southerly flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These winds will diminish through Sat night ahead of the next front which will move off the Texas coast Sun morning. The front will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh trade winds across the eastern and central basin, where seas remain in the 5-7 ft range. In exposed Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong easterly winds prevail with 7-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds winds have developed in the NW Caribbean as the pressure gradient tightens due to an approaching cold front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in that region. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun night. The cold front entering the Yucatan Channel will dissipate through Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Cuba through Sun evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over most of the basin through the early part of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N72W to 24N80W. This front is supporting scattered showers N of 27N between 69W and the front. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N while moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 6 ft are affecting the NE Florida offshore waters behind the front. The remaining subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered by a 1028 mb high near 31N46W. Winds S of 25N between 37W and 70W are mainly fresh to locally strong with a NE to E swell component supporting seas of 7-9 ft per altimeter data. Gentle to moderate E winds dominate the remainder subtropical waters E of 37W. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from Bermuda to northwest Cuba by this evening. The part of the front north of 25N will continue to move east of the area through late Sat, with the southern portion stalling across the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating Mon. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into early next week mainly south of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. The front will dissipates Tue night, ahead of a third, stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Wed. $$ ERA