000
AXNT20 KNHC 061024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W 
to 05N12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W to 03N30W to the equator
at 44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 
07N, between 27W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A weak cold front extends from Everglades City, Florida to just N
of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N87W. Winds are moderate to fresh
from the NE behind the front and E of 90W where seas remain in the  
4-6 ft range. Otherwise, a 1027 mb high over southern Louisiana 
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the western
half of the gulf where seas are in the 3-5 ft range.  

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the Gulf later today 
while weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in 
the wake of the front through Sat morning. Return flow around high
pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening 
Sun as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf 
while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast early 
next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the area 
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh trade 
winds across the eastern and central basin, where seas remain in
the 5-7 ft range. A localized area of strong NE winds continue to
pulse offshore Colombia with seas to 8 ft. In exposed Atlantic 
waters east of the Lesser Antilles, easterly winds are fresh to 
locally strong with 7-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds winds 
have developed in the NW Caribbean as the pressure gradient 
tightens due to an approaching cold front. Seas are 3 to 4 ft in 
that region. Otherwise, both an upper level trough and a middle 
level col continue to support isolated showers across the central
and eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through 
Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds are expected in the NW Caribbean through Sun 
evening, including the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh 
trades will prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the 
Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through
tonight. Elevated seas in the Tropical N Atlantic will subside by
the end of the weekend. A weak cold front will enter the NW basin
today and dissipate during the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N75W SW to the area of West Palm
Beach, Florida. This front is supporting scattered showers N of
24N and W of 68W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ahead of
the front N of 27N while moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 6
ft are affecting the NE Florida offshore waters behind the front.
The remaining subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence
of a broad surface ridge centered by a 1029 mb high near 31N48W.
Winds S of 25N between 37W and 70W are mainly fresh to locally
strong with a NE to E swell component supporting seas of 7-9 ft
per altimeter data. Gentle to moderate E winds dominate the
remainder subtropical waters E of 37W. 

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the eastern 
portion of the SW N Atlantic waters will continue to shift 
eastward as a cold front moves across the northern Bahamas today.
The front will extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early 
Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW winds N 
of 27N and ahead of the front as well as NW winds behind the front
will diminish early in the evening. Moderate to fresh winds will 
prevail S of 24N and E of the Bahamas through tonight, with 
locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and
N of Hispaniola. Otherwise, the next cold front is forecast to 
move off N Florida Sun night into Mon. 

$$
Ramos