000 AXNT20 KNHC 042312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia from 05N03W to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 03N28W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Apalachicola, FL to 25N91W to 22N95W to 18.5N95W. A pre-frontal squall line, which has weakened slightly over the past few hours, extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N82.5W to 25N91W. The area of showers and thunderstorms with the line is about 75 nm in width. The remainder of the Gulf is free of any significant precipitation. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail east of the front in the NE Gulf, locally stronger in the squall line. Fresh N winds are off the coast of Veracruz. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf. A cold front extending from near the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W will slowly shift east-southeast, extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon, exiting the Gulf by early Fri. The squall line ahead of the front will result in hazardous conditions. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is spinning over the N Caribbean centered near 17N69W. This feature is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms across portions of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, as well as waters north of 15N between 65W-71W. Elsewhere, no significant precipitation is noted over the Caribbean. Earlier ASCAT data from this morning showed fresh trades across much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate SE winds are likely occurring over the far NW corner of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft in the area N of Jamaica to the Windward Passage. Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Mon night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu, returning across the Windward Passage Sun briefly. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next several days, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. A weak cold front will approach the area by the end of the week, dissipating as it moves into the NW portion. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pre-frontal squall line containing thunderstorms has moved off the coast of northern Florida and is affecting waters north of 29N and west of 79.5W. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas 5-7 ft prevail north of 29N and west of 77W. An upper-level low near the Mona Passage is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 18N-21N between 63.5W-70W. 1028 mb high pressure near 33N49W extends a surface ridge west-southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Farther south, fresh trade winds prevail from 10N-25N between 40W-70W, with seas 5 to 8 ft. A weakening cold front extends from 31N41W to 29N50W with little noticeable impact. Over the far E Atlantic, east of 35W, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the area through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward as a cold front moves off N Florida Thu. The front will extend from 31N74W to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected over the NE Florida offshore waters tonight and Thu ahead of the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell. $$ Hagen