000 AXNT20 KNHC 041026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of southern Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 03N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09n between 26W and 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to a 1012 mb low pressure located near 24N97W to Tampico, Mexico. Patches of dense fog continue ahead of the front in the north-central gulf coastal and offshore waters. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are across the eastern half of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are in the western half of the basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will slowly shift east-southeast, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will persist through today before diminishing. Only moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially moves into the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are seen over the NW region with the exception of moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Locally strong winds also continue across portions of the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage and north of Jamaica, and S of Hispaniola where seas range between 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging building north of the area and extending to the northern Caribbean will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast, across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu, except off Colombia where strong winds will continue to pulse through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, and the tropical N Atlantic through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Thu, then increase to moderate to fresh speeds again on Fri as a weak cold front approaches the area. Winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish back to gentle to moderate speeds on Sun as the front weakens N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1027 mb located NE of Bermuda near 33N60W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and the State of Florida. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevail across this region. Winds increase to moderate to fresh across the southern periphery of the ridge, affecting mainly the waters S of 23N, including the Old Bahama Channel. Seas are generally 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas based on altimeter data and buoy observations. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W and extends SW to near 28N55W. A surface trough is analyzed along 41W/42W N of 25N. Light winds prevail near the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure situated E of the Azores near 37N16W. An area of fresh to strong trades is noted just N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 23N based on scatterometer data. Seas area in the 8-9 ft range within these winds according to an altimeter pass. Mainly fresh winds are within the island water passages of the Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands while fresh to strong NE winds are observed across the waters S of the Madeira Islands to about 30N. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface ridge will dominate the region through Wed. Moderate or weaker winds north of 27N will increase to fresh to strong offshore NE Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front, while winds south of 27N will be moderate to fresh, locally strong near the Windward Passage. The cold front will move off NE Florida Thu night, then extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Sat morning, weakening as it reaches from 29N55W to 24N70W by Sun morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast behind the front, diminishing by early Sat. $$ Ramos