000
AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N15W to 04N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 01N to 06N between 31W and 41W. 

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, while a 1009 mb 
low pressure center has formed over Corpus Christi, TX, along a 
cold front approaching the NW Gulf of Mexico. This results in a 
tight pressure gradient allowing for fresh to locally strong 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas building over the Gulf west of 90W, 
with seas up to 9 ft in the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh return 
flow prevails over the Gulf east of 90W with 3 to 5 ft seas. 
Otherwise, the dense fog that has been affecting the northern 
Gulf coast is expected to erode as the low level flow increases 
ahead of the approaching storm system. 

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between a 
developing winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high 
pressure over the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S 
return flow through this morning across the Gulf of Mexico. The 
cold front will slowly move off of the Texas coast this 
afternoon, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in its wake on Fri and Sat, 
with return flow this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the eastern and 
central Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer pass captured 
fresh to locally strong NE winds within 70 nm south of 
Hispaniola with seas around 6 ft and within 60 nm offshore of NW 
Colombia, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Fresh winds were also 
captured in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, where 
seas are up to 7 ft. Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area 
will force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the 
tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period. Locally strong 
trades are expected to continue within 90 NM of the Colombian 
coast, across the approach to the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola through Thu night, as well as near the Gulf of 
Honduras tonight. 
A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW Caribbean on Fri 
with fresh NE winds and building seas Fri night and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic discussion waters 
with a 034 mb center located between the Azores and the Madeira 
Islands near 35N22W and another 1025 mb centered over the SW N 
Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N54W to 20N61W. 
Some shower activity is near the trough axis. Light to gentle 
winds and 3 to 5 ft prevail across much of the waters north of 
23N and west of 40W under the influence of the ridge. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds across the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in 
the 5-7 ft range. Similar sea heights are noted N of the Cabo 
Verde Islands and E of 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface ridge over the SW N 
Atlantic waters will promote moderate or weaker winds north of 
27N through early Wed, with moderate to fresh trades south of 
27N. As the ridge strengthens on Wed and Thu, it will force 
fresh to strong tradewinds south of 25N, including the Windward 
Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front is 
anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After 
emerging from the SE United States coast Thu night, the cold 
front should extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat 
morning with moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in its 
wake.

$$
Mora