493 AXNT20 KNHC 021810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W, then continues to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends from 05N12W to 06N20W to 03N35W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 08N between 27W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging anchored over the SE CONUS dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf and moderate to locally fresh return flow E of 90W, noted in buoy observations and recent scatterometer data. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with seas up to 6 ft in the NW Gulf offshore TX. Otherwise, southerly winds and abundant moisture across the northern Gulf coast continue to support the development of dense marine fog through the afternoon hours. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between a developing winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high pressure over the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow through Tue night across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will slowly move off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to Yucatan Thu morning, and cross the Gulf by Thu night accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 120 NM of the US coastline through tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface ridging N of the area extends to the northern half of the basin, thus resulting in a tighter pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean with moderate seas. Slightly higher seas to 9 ft are off the coast of Colombia due to strong winds pulsing offshore overnight. For the forecast, the surface ridging building north of the area will force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through Thu morning. Locally strong trades are expected within 90 NM of the Colombian coast, within the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should diminish on Thu over the Caribbean ahead of a front moving across the Gulf of Mexico, while the trades over the tropical N Atlantic will remain at a fresh breeze. The weakening cold front should reach the NW Caribbean on Fri with fresh NE winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive ridge extending from NW of the Azores Islands to the N Bahamas is retaining tranquil marine conditions of light winds and slights seas west of 55W. The exception is south of 23N over the Bahamas and N of the Caribbean Islands, trade winds increase to moderate with 3 to 5 ft seas. The former cold front drifting across the western Atlantic has dissipated south of 31N. Farther east, a stationary front is just NW of the Canary Islands, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft north of 28N. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters is dominated by surface ridging, which provides mainly moderate to locally fresh winds across the central Atlantic waters and 5 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure building in behind the dissipated cold front between Bermuda and the N Bahamas will leave behind gentle or weaker winds north of 25N for the next couple of days. The ridge will build through Wed and Thu and will force fresh to strong tradewinds south of 25N, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a new cold front is anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After emerging from the SE United States coast Thu, the cold front should extend from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas on Fri morning with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in its wake. $$ Mora