000 AXNT20 KNHC 011732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins offshore of Sierra Leone near 07N15W and extends west to 04N30W, to 02N40W, and to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N and between 23W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf region allowing for gentle to moderate E-SE flow across the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas. Lighter winds are noted in the NE Gulf. The light winds and abundant moisture across the northern Gulf coast remain favorable for the development of dense marine fog during the overnight hours tonight and will remain until the late morning hours tomorrow. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions. For the forecast, a developing high pressure over the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow tonight through Tue night over the N and central Gulf. A cold front will move off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon and cross the Gulf by Wed night, accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 120 NM of the U.S. coastline through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the Caribbean Sea, with no significant convection. The subtropical ridge to the north of the islands supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Seas are up to 8 ft offshore the Colombian coast due to strong winds pulsing overnight. A recent scatterometer pass captured mainly moderate easterly breezes are noted in the eastern and SW Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient from the Bermuda High to the northeast, and the Colombian Low will continue to force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through Tue afternoon. Locally strong trades will pulse nightly within 90 NM of the Colombian coast. Winds will increase some starting Tue night over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlantic waters, with fresh to strong trades likely in the Windward Passage, the Mona Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should again diminish on Thu ahead of a cold front approaching the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front has moved off of the Georgia and N Florida coasts this morning. No significant convection or winds are associated with this boundary. An expansive high pressure system north of the area dominates the tropical Atlantic. A weakening cold front extends from 31N20W to 24N38W, where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front that is draped westward to 24N51W. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are north of the boundary, between 20W and 60W. 8 to 10 ft seas are mainly east of 40W and north of the front, with 6 to 8 ft seas between 60W and 40W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds west of 27W to about 60W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Calm to gentle winds are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the weak cold front will track eastward along and north of 28N early this week. The tradewinds are expected to increase on Wed and Thu south of 25N and east of 75W. During that time, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a stronger cold front is anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. $$ MORA