000 AXNT20 KNHC 011007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough stretches from the Africa coast along the Liberia Sierra-Leone border to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 04N30W and from 04N33W to 02N51W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ along 31W, from 02N to 07N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 08N and between 20W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A previously stationary front has devolved into a surface trough overnight that extends from just offshore the Florida panhandle to the center Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W. Another weak trough has moved off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early this morning. High pressure centered over the SE U.S. is building into the Gulf, and there is no significant convection present. Light to gentle SE winds dominate with slight seas of 1 to 3 ft. The light winds and abundant moisture across the northern Gulf coast remain favorable for the development of dense marine fog during the overnight hours. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until the late morning hours for the waters from central Texas to the Big Bend area of Florida. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions. For the forecast, the aforementioned troughs will dissipate later today. Mainly gentle winds will prevail through tonight. As the high moves E, fresh to strong SE to S flow will develop in the NW and north central Gulf Mon into Tue. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by Tue night, then move SE across the basin into late week. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline, early this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the Caribbean Sea, with no significant convection. The subtropical ridge to the north of the islands support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. The strong winds are found off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted in the eastern and SW Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central Caribbean through early week, with moderate to fresh east winds in the eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Winds will increase some starting Tue night over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the tropical N Atlantic waters, and fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive high pressure system north of the area dominates the tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N21W to 25N40W, where it transitions into a stationary front that is draped westward to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the stationary front to 28N and between 53W and 57W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds west of 25W. Seas in the central and western Atlantic are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N30W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. Patchy marine fog is restricting visibility for some waters within 90 nm of the NE coast of Florida. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts today, then track along and N of 29N early this week. Trade winds are expected to increase during the middle of the week south of 25N and east of 75W. During that time, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ KONARIK