000 AXNT20 KNHC 311757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough does not reach the forecast area at this time. The ITCZ begins near the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends SW to 04N20W to 03N33W, and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W and 32W. Similar convection is also from 01N to 04N between 34W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front continues to move eastward over the Gulf of Mexico, extending from near Pensacola, FL, to the west-central Gulf near 24.5N95W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the cold front over the NE Gulf, north of 25N. Mariners may encounter heavy downpours reducing visibility below 2 miles, frequent lightning, and gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds are occurring in the NE Gulf ahead of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate NW winds in the NW Gulf and light to gentle winds in the western Gulf. A surface trough axis along 94W in the Bay of Campeche is producing moderate SE winds E of the axis and gentle NW winds on the W side of the axis. The latest buoy observations are reposting 3 to 5 ft seas across most of the basin, with seas peaking at 5 ft near the strongest winds offshore the FL Panhandle. The warm, moist area over the relatively cool shelf waters along the northern Gulf coast is leading to marine fog across portions of the waters. Within 60 nm of the U.S. coast from the Florida- Alabama border west, areas of dense fog are at times restricting visibility to 1 nm or less, leading to hazardous boating conditions. The weather pattern is conducive to additional marine fog development that may prevail through the weekend. For the forecast, The front will slide E across the northern Gulf, exiting the area late tonight. The scattered thunderstorms east of the front will be confined to the eastern Gulf through today. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate winds for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S flow will return to the Gulf late Sun night through Tue, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Tue. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline from Florida through Texas this weekend through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered NE of Bermuda is dominating weather for the basin, suppressing any significant convection and supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin. A recent scatterometer pass noted strong winds within 90 nm of the NE Colombian coast, where seas are up to 9 ft due to the strong pressure gradient from the aforementioned high and lower pressure over Colombia. 6 to 8 ft seas prevail across the eastern and central basin due to the fresh trades, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next week, with some increase in winds possible by mid-week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras next week. Easterly swell will continue to gradually subside in the tropical Atlantic today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge remains the dominant feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak cold front continues to move gradually eastward, extending from 31N28W to 27N38W The boundary transitions to a stationary front that stretches to 26N58W, as indicated in the latest scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present north of the frontal boundary, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds, mainly south of 25N and between the SE Bahamas and 30W where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. An area of SE to S moderate to fresh winds is north of the Bahamas and offshore central and NE FL ahead of the approaching front from the Gulf of Mexico, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 29N east of northern Florida tonight. Large E swell east of 67W and south of 24N will continue to gradually subside today. Fresh to strong winds may pulse nightly during the middle of next week N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Mora