000 AXNT20 KNHC 310027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 06N11W. The ITCZ continues from 06N11W to 05N29W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 07N and east of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure over SW Louisiana to SE Texas. Another low pressure resides near 30N44W and a trough extends from the low to 25N95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found north of 25N and ahead of the boundaries to the NE Gulf. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a high pressure system north of Bermuda. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring north of 27N and between 89W and 83W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found in the rest of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 90W. Seas are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds prevail over the north- central and northeast Gulf of Mexico, ahead of a weak cold front that currently extends from Lake Charles, LA to Brownsville, TX. The cold front will move E across the northern Gulf into Sat night. A line of strong thunderstorms, currently over the north- central Gulf, will continue moving slowly eastward through tonight. Some of these thunderstorms will continue to display frequent lightning and strong wind gusts through this evening. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, Sat night and Sun, leading to gentle to moderate winds. Fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the Gulf Sun night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas coast by Tue. Patchy dense fog is possible for portions of the U.S. coastal waters through the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1030 mb high pressure is positioned north of Bermuda and extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions, with no significant convection over the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is producing fresh to strong E trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft are prevalent in the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central Caribbean, with fresh winds over the E Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere through tonight. Fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Trade winds will diminish some this weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through this evening before subsiding through Sat. Looking ahead to next week, fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse S of Hispaniola, in the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Most of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by ridging, allowing for generally tranquil weather conditions across most of the basin. However, a weak cold front extends from 31N39W to 28N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to 29N66W. Only notable convection associated with this feature is scattered showers found within 50 nm north of the stationary front between 61W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are evident behind the front, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. To the west, a surface trough extends north of the NW Bahamas from 30N76W to 26N80W, near the coast of Florida. No deep convection is associated with this feature. Moderate E winds are present north of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Broad ridging over the tropical Atlantic supports moderate to locally fresh E trades south of 25N, between the southeast Bahamas and 25W. Seas in this area are generally 6 to 9 ft. Over the far eastern Atlantic, a 1014 mb low pressure system is located near 19N21W with an attendant surface trough extending northward to 29N23W. The convection that was previously present to the north of the low has dissipated and no significant convection is found near this feature. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring north of 22N and east of 20W. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 28N55W to 29N65W. The front will dissipate on Sat. A cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts Sat night or early Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of 67W and south of 25N will continue through today before gradually subsiding tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through tonight, and again during the middle of next week. $$ DELGADO