000 AXNT20 KNHC 291009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N24W to 02N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 30W and 37W and from 03N to 07N between 12W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center over the Carolinas through the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas Gulf coast. This feature is dominating Gulf weather, precluding significant convection. Moderate to fresh SE winds are present through the basin, with some strong winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, Fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Gulf will diminish by Fri as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will prevail into Fri. The weak cold front should stall from Mississippi to Tampico, Mexico, Sat, then dissipate Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the western and central Gulf Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough in the SW Atlantic that crosses SW to the Lee of Cuba is producing scattered moderate convection in the region, continuing westward to offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, dry air and subsidence is preventing significant convection across the basin. Fresh trades dominate the basin, with areas of strong winds noted S of Haiti and N of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, with so localized 8 ft seas in the area of strong winds offshore Colombia. For the forecast, weak surface ridging N of the region will maintain moderate to fresh winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean through today. A cold front north of the basin will weaken tonight, allowing the ridge north of the region to strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Fri into Fri night. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across the basin for the weekend. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W to just NE of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough then continues SW into Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 180 nm of the front. Fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the cold front, with winds and seas diminishing off the coast of N Florida. Much of the rest of the basin's weather is being dominated by a surface high centered near 32N37W. This is leading to fresh trades S of 28N, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. N of 28N, closer to the high's center, winds are gentle and seas are 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, 1012 mb low pressure is centered midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Canary Islands. NW of the center, strong NE winds are occurring, with seas of 10 to 12 ft. Some scattered convection is noted E of the low, just offshore Western Sahara. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move east into Fri, stall Fri night in the far NE waters, then dissipate over the weekend. The surface trough will drift NW through tonight, before dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Georgia coast Sun. Large E swell east of 68W and south of 25N will slowly subside through Fri. $$ KONARIK