000 AXNT20 KNHC 271034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Dec 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N to 03N07W. The ITCZ continues from 03N07W to 04N20W to 04N34W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 19N94W. Another surface trough extends S from Louisiana to 26N93W. No convection is associated with these troughs, but fresh N winds are occurring to the W of them. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SE Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits, in association with another surface trough that is to the S and E of the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate and northerly. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail today. As high pressure weakens and slides east, southerly return flow will set up tonight. Fresh S winds will increase to locally strong in the NW Gulf Wed ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection, fresh NE winds, and seas to 8 ft are all occurring behind this trough. Two other troughs in the basin are not producing any sensible weather. One of these troughs extends from from Eastern Cuba to 15N76W, while the other extends from 18N83W to Panama. The remainder of the basin is dominated by mainly fresh trades being enhanced by strong high pressure well NE of the area. Locally strong NE to E winds are ongoing offshore Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean into the weekend. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters into tonight. E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Thu. A stationary front from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras has devolved into a trough overnight. There is still some fresh NE winds behind this trough, which will dissipate tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from just SE of Bermuda, through the central Bahamas, and into central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and behind this boundary, extending NW up to a stationary front that extends from 31N74W to just off the Florida coast. Fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted behind the trough. Elsewhere N of 25N and W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds dominate and seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere across much of the basin, fresh to strong trades prevail, enhanced by high pressure SW of the Azores. Seas are 8 to 13 ft. A 1010 mb low pressure centered just SW of the Canary Islands and associated occluded front area leading to broad area of strong winds from 23N to 33N E of 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within this area of strong winds. A cold front south of this low extends from Western Sahara to the Cabo Verde Islands. The sea heights range from 11 feet to 15 feet within 1000 nm of the 1010 mb low pressure center in the W semicircle. Sea heights that range from 16 feet to 19 feet are within 300 nm of the 1010 mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front from Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba has devolved into a trough overnight. A cold front will move SE today and replace this surface trough tonight. The combined front will move E of the area during the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected behind the front. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week. $$ KONARIK