000
AXNT20 KNHC 261610
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1805 UTC Mon Dec 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

In the eastern Atlantic a 1012 mb low pressure system has formed 
near the Canary Islands. The gradient between this feature and 
the subtropical high will generate an area of gale force N-NE 
winds north of 26N, between 22W and 30W. Winds are expected to 
reach gale force this evening from 26 Dec at 1800 UTC to 27 Dec 
at 0000 UTC. These winds will generate very rough seas of 14-17 
ft. Please read the high seas forecast, that is issued by METEO-
FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to the 
equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
02N to 05N, between 31W and 46W. Isolated weak convection is 
observed from 04N to 09N, between 17W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 25N97W to the Bay of Campeche. 
West of the trough winds are fresh from the north. East of the 
trough, winds are moderate from the NE. High pressure dominates 
the NE Gulf with gentle winds. Seas gradually increase southward 
from slight in the northern Gulf to 6-9 ft in the southern Gulf, 
on an abating trend. Scattered showers are noted south of 25N.

For the forecast, strong NW winds and rough seas will diminish 
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, today. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will then settle over the entire basin 
tonight, and continue through Tue night. Fresh S winds will 
increase to locally strong in the NW Gulf late this week, ahead 
of the next cold front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba to the 
coast of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is noted N of 
17N and W of 80W in association with this boundary. Winds N and 
W of the front are fresh to strong out of the NE. Elsewhere 
across the basin, mainly fresh E winds dominate, with an area of 
strong trades offshore Colombia, and locally strong trades just 
S of Haiti. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft, reaching 9 ft in the 
NW Caribbean and in the southern Colombian Basin. 

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to 
the northern Caribbean into late week. This will continue to 
provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, 
central, and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds 
will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through the 
forecast period. E swell will continue to affect the tropical 
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed night. A 
weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf 
of Honduras with fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind it. 
The front will dissipate today. Fresh to strong winds and rough 
seas will prevail behind the front into tonight, when conditions 
will slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the 
gale-force wind conditions that are forecast in the eastern 
Atlantic. 

A dissipating stationary front extends from near Bermuda through 
the central Bahamas and into central Cuba. A broad area of 
scattered moderate convection is noted along and NW of this 
boundary, extending to the Florida coast. As the gradient 
relaxes NW of the front, winds are gentle to moderate out of the 
N, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. SE of the front, winds and seas 
gradually increase, with easterlies becoming fresh to strong E 
of 60W, and seas in this area ranging from 9-12 ft. Similar 
conditions dominate the majority of the basin, with winds 
gradually shifting to northeasterlies in the eastern Atlantic. A 
1036 mb high pressure is centered near 34N39W. Farther east, a 
1012 mb low pressure has developed over the Canary Islands. The 
gradient between these two features is generating strong to near 
gale force NE winds, which will intensify to gale force this 
evening while generating very rough seas. A mature frontal 
system extends east of the low, with scattered moderate 
convection observed from 23N to 31N, between 15W and 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening stationary front extends 
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 
22N79W. The front will linger into midweek through this area, 
before moving east as a cold front late this week. Fresh winds 
could develop behind this cold front. Meanwhile, large swell E 
of 60W and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week.  

$$ 
Flynn