000 AXNT20 KNHC 261015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of a gale-force wind warning for the three marine zones: in IRVING and in MADEIRA from 30N to 35N between 13W and 35W, and in METEOR from 25N to 30N between 22W and 35W. Expect the gale-force winds in each area, from 26/1800 UTC until 27/0000 UTC. Please, read the latest high seas forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 06N22W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 36W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 23N97W to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Bay of Campeche as well as the Florida Straits, otherwise weak high pressure centered just inland along the north-central Gulf coast is dominating the basin and precluding significant convection. Fresh NW winds are ongoing to the W of the surface trough, with fresh NE winds in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida. Otherwise, gentle to moderate mainly E winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the Bay of Campeche, 4 to 7 ft elsewhere in the southern Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, fresh NW winds and rough seas will diminish offshore Veracruz, Mexico, today. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will then settle over the entire basin tonight and continue through Tue night. Fresh S winds will increase to locally strong in the NW Gulf late this week, ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 18N and W of 78W in association with this boundary. Winds N and W of the front are fresh to strong out of the NE, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, mainly fresh E winds dominate, with an area of strong trades offshore Colombia, and locally strong trades just S of Haiti. Seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean into late week. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Sat. E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed night. A stationary front will linger in the NW Caribbean into Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front into tonight, when conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force wind conditions that are forecast for three METEO- FRANCE marine zones. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba. A broad area of scattered moderate convection is noted along and NW of this boundary, extending to the Florida coast. Winds behind the front are gentle to moderate out of the N, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Ahead of the front, winds and seas gradually increase, with easterlies becoming fresh to strong E of 60W, and seas in the area of fresh to strong winds ranging from 8 to 12 ft. A 1034 mb high pressure is centered near 35N37W. Farther east, low pressure over the Canary Islands has an associated cold front that extends to the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong NE winds are behind this front to around 30W, with seas of 10 to 14 ft. It is behind the front that the aforementioned gales are expected to form later today in the far eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front in the NW Tropical Atlantic will linger into midweek through this area, before moving east as a cold front late this week. Fresh winds could develop behind this cold front. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week. $$ KONARIK