000 AXNT20 KNHC 250551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A stationary front is along 31N67W, to the central Bahamas near 24N76W, to 22N79W in Cuba, curving into the NW Caribbean Sea to the border of Guatemala and Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is: in the NW Caribbean Sea, to the northwest of the line that runs from NE Honduras to SE Cuba; in the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the line from SE Cuba beyond 31N60W. Gale-force wind warnings, and sea heights that range from 13 feet to 18 feet, are forecast to be in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico during the next 30 hours. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, through the southern coastal areas of Liberia to 05N10W, and to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W, to 02N30W and 02N42W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the details about the gale-force wind conditions and the sea heights, that are expected for the Gulf of Mexico during the next 30 hours. Expect the wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 30 knots, and the sea heights to range from 12 feet to 16 feet, in much of the western half of the Gulf, and in some of the central sections. Expect the rest of the eastern half of the Gulf to have wind speeds of 20 knots or less, and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 12 feet. A surface ridge extends from an east central Texas 1034 mb high pressure center, to NE Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force NW winds continue in the Veracruz Mexico offshore waters, in the wake of a cold front that currently extends SE of the basin. Very rough to high seas are expected in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail elsewhere in most of the Gulf waters. These winds will continue to diminish through Sun. The gale-force winds across Veracruz will persist through Sun evening. Strong winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon as well as seas dropping below 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will settle in the Gulf by Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The front that was cold 24 hours ago, and that has brought the gale-force winds and the sea heights of 13 feet to 18 feet in the Gulf of Mexico, now is stationary in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The stationary front passes through central Cuba, toward the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the NW Caribbean Sea, to the northwest of the line that runs from NE Honduras to SE Cuba. Near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong NE winds have been within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia between 71W and 80W. Strong northerly winds have been within 180 nm of the southern coasts of Cuba between 78W and 83W. Fresh NE to E winds are in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds have been elsewhere to the north of the stationary front, and in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet in the areas of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands from 14N to 17N. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet elsewhere between 60W and 70W. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Thu night. NE and E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to strong winds and rough seas following it. The front will linger in this area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds with rough seas are expected behind the front through Mon, when conditions will improve slowly as the front weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N67W, to the central Bahamas near 24N76W, to 22N79W in Cuba, curving into the NW Caribbean Sea to the border of Guatemala and Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the line that runs from SE Cuba beyond 31N60W. Fresh to strong winds are from 30N northward, to the north of the front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 25N to 30N from 65W westward. The sea heights are 11 feet and higher, from 30N northward. An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N17W to 25N27W. The cold front is dissipating from 25N27W to 23N36W. A remnant cloud line is along 22N36W 22N46W 24N53W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front, and the remnant cloud line. A 1035 mb high pressure center is near 35N43W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from 65W eastward, except near the eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front. Strong to near gale-force winds are from 06N northward between 32W and 56W. Mostly fresh to isolated strong winds are from the ITCZ northward between 20W and 32W. Fresh winds are from 20N northward between 43W and 62W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 55W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 20N southward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward between 55W and 65W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N78W. Fresh NW winds continue behind the front with rough seas. The front will linger through midweek through this area. Winds across the waters W of 70W will become moderate to fresh tonight, then continue weakening through early next week along with subsiding seas. Large swell E of 60W will subside slowly through the next week. $$ mt/ar