000 AXNT20 KNHC 250006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 TAFB UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: Strong high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is resulting in northerly gale-force winds near the Veracruz offshore waters, with seas peaking near 16 ft this evening. Strong to near gale force winds prevail across the SW Gulf with fresh to strong northerly winds across the remainder of the basin S of 25N. Seas are 8 to 13 ft south of 25N, highest in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun night while winds elsewhere continue to diminish gradually. Seas are expected to drop below 12 ft by Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Libera near 03N30W to the NE coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 08N between 10W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the gale-force wind warning in the SW portion of the basin. Strong surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a couple of 1038 mb high pressure centers over the state of Texas. The pressure gradient over the waters N of 25N has slightly weaken allowing for N winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds with seas of 3-7 ft. S of 25N, fresh to near gale force winds are dominant, except for slightly higher winds off Veracruz where seas are in the 11 to 16 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are 8 to 11 ft. Otherwise, tropical moisture streaming from the E Pacific continue to support a wide line of scattered showers across most of the southern basin and portions of the NE gulf. For the forecast, very rough to high seas are expected in the Bay of Campeche and Veracruz offshore waters as gale-force winds in this region continue tonight through Sun evening. Strong winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon as well as seas dropping below 12 ft. Winds will become moderate to fresh for the northern and eastern Gulf tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from western Cuba to Belize coastal waters with fresh to strong N winds and rough seas following it. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front across the SW N Atlantic waters along with high pressure over the central Atlantic continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean and strong to near-gale winds over the south-central waters off Colombia and Venezuela. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Wed night. NE and E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. The stationary front will prevail through Tue. Fresh to strong winds with rough seas are expected behind the front through Mon, when conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to 25N73W then becomes stationary from that point to north-central Cuba. Mainly moderate to fresh winds follows the front with seas to 11 ft. Strong surface ridging dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters resulting in fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern subtropics. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will stall from 31N65W to central Cuba by Sun and linger through midweek. Winds across the waters W of 70W will continue weakening through early next week along with subsiding seas. Large swell E of 65W will slowly subside by mid week. $$ Ramos