000 AXNT20 KNHC 221033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast later today. The front will bring widespread gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the basin tonight through Fri. Minimal storm- force winds are expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force winds will come to an end by Fri night for most of the basin. Gale-force winds are expected to continue near Veracruz through Fri night and possibly Sat and Sun. The 12 ft seas will spread across nearly all of the Gulf west of 85W with peak seas approaching 20 ft. Conditions will slowly improve later this weekend and into early next week. SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast later tonight into early Fri morning. W to NW gales should occur west of the frontal boundary Fri morning through Fri afternoon north of 30N west of 74W. Seas may reach 15 ft on Fri. By Fri night, the gales will move north of our waters. Strong winds will slowly diminish on Sat and the seas will gradually subside by Sun. SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1016 mb low pressure area is positioned near 25N70W. Scattered showers are affecting the waters north of 23N and between 63W and 72W. Earlier scatterometer satellite pass show strong to gale-force winds from 24N to 28N and between 66W and 76W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The low is expected to dissipate this morning and winds will drop below gale-force by 22/0900 UTC. Seas will drop 8 ft Thu afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale and Storm Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continue to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 02N38W to the Brazil coast near 01N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 07N between 24W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on the Storm warning. This front will bring dangerous weather conditions across the Gulf region tonight through Fri. The basin is dominated by a ridge located north of the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A trough extends from the Mississippi coast near 30N88W to 23N89W. No significant convection is associated with it. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are observed in the NE Gulf, mainly north of 28N and east of 90W. Light to gentle winds and buoys are reporting seas between 2-3 in the eastern Gulf and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, a strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast later this afternoon. The front will bring widespread gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the basin tonight through Fri. Minimal storm- force winds are expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force winds will come to an end by Fri night for most of the Gulf with conditions slowly improving through the weekend and into early next week. Gale-force winds will continue across Veracruz through Fri night and likely into Sat and Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea with only isolated weak showers due to a few pockets of shallow moisture. High pressure north of the area extends southward into the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly breezes across the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and high seas are found in the offshore waters of NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in this region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean through the weekend. Moderate long- period N to NE swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters through early next week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Fri into early Sat. The front will reach from central Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat night, stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sun night and linger in this area through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the two Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic. A low pressure area is located off NE Florida, near 30N79W, and a stationary front extends southward to central Florida. Only a few showers are near near these features. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong easterly winds north of 28N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N79W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N30W and continues southwestward to 27N47W, where it becomes a stationary front that stretches to 24N66W. No deep convection is noted in association with these boundaries. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found north of the frontal boundaries, along with seas of 8-14 ft. The highest seas are occurring north of 26N and east of 60W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1032 mb high pressure system near the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ support moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, especially south of 20N. Seas are 6-9 ft in these waters. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features section for details on two gale warnings. $$ AReinhart