000 AXNT20 KNHC 212317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a 1014 mb low pressure area is situated near the N Bahamas at 26N77W with a stationary front extending east-southeastward to 24N66W. Minimal gale force winds and seas in the 8-11 ft range are just north of the stationary front. The low and the frontal boundary should drift slowly southeastward with the winds dropping below gale force by tomorrow morning. SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast Fri morning. W to NW gales should occur west of the frontal boundary Fri morning through Fri night north of 30N west of 73W. Seas may reach 15 ft on Fri. By Sat morning, the gales will move north of our waters and the seas will gradually subside. Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Thu evening followed by near-gale to gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the basin through Fri, lingering through Fri night off Veracruz where minimal storm-force winds are expected Fri afternoon. 12 ft seas will spread across nearly all of the Gulf west of 85W with peak seas approaching 20 ft. Conditions will slowly improve through the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale and Storm Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ then extends from 06N20W to near the coast of Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 04N between between 05W-13W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about a strong cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters by Thu evening. This front will bring dangerous weather conditions across the gulf region. As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends southwest from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Low level clouds and patches of light rain are noted west of the front over the Bay of Campeche and SE Mexico. Fresh NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are west of the front over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are observed over the NE Gulf between the front and a ridge over the SE CONUS. For the forecast aside from the strong cold front arriving Thu evening, the weak cold front will stall and become diffuse tonight. Fresh winds west of the front will gradually diminish tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean through the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Moderate long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Sat night, dissipating from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the two Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic. Elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic, a strong pressure gradient between a 1015 mb low near 30N80W to a ridge extending from near the Outer Banks of North Carolina across the forecast waters between 60W and 70W is producing fresh to strong E winds north of 30N and east of 73W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. A stationary front extends from near 31N44W to 24N67W. While winds are moderate or weaker, seas are 8-14 ft in N swell. Th eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge with a 1030 mb high pressure located east of the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in N swell within these winds. For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features section for details on two gale warnings. $$ GR/CWL