000 AXNT20 KNHC 191712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W, then continues westward to near 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 05W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A low pressure system has developed over southern Texas this morning. A warm front extends from the low center located near 27N97.5W across the northern Gulf to near 28N90W. A cold front stretches from the same low center to N of Tampico, Mexico near 23N98W. Widespread patches of light rain, showers and drizzle are affecting south Texas and NE Mexico in association with this low. A line of showers and thunderstorms is N of 22N and within about 60 nm ahead of a surface trough that extends over the western Gulf from 25N96W to the central Bay of Campeche where isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted. The trough combined with a ridge across the eastern Gulf supports an area of fresh to strong E to SE winds northeast of the trough to about 90W, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds east of 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft within the strongest winds northeast of the trough. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring southwest of the trough including in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 4-7 ft are also seen over most of the eastern Gulf based on altimeter data. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pres will move ENE to the north-central Gulf by Tue morning, with a cold front extending SSW and a warm front extending E from the low. The low will then shift east-southeast toward south Florida by late Tue night while the cold front slowly moves eastward, stalling and weakening by mid-week. Strong to locally near gale force winds are expected to develop near the low pres Tue and Tue evening as it traverses the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Tue and Tue evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely with the low and front. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Thu evening followed by near-gale or gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri night, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. Strong cold air advection is forecast to follow the front. Temperatures look to be on the chilly side for South Florida during the upcoming weekend. Stay tuned. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough enters the NE Caribbean just N of Guadeloupe and continues westward to near 16.5N72W. A band of broken low clouds with possible showers is related to the trough. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with strong to near gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia based on a recent scatterometer pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds are present in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are observed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a ridge north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N59W then continues SW across the central Bahamas to the coast of western Cuba near 23N82W. A few showers are ahead of the front mainly N of 27N. Mainly moderate N to NE winds are observed in the wake of the front per recent scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 29N to about 55W with seas of 9-11 ft in NE swell. Seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell follow the front covering the waters N of 29N E of 71W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere southeast of the front under the influence of a ridge. Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from the Madeira Islands to 19N50W, where it becomes a surface trough continuing southwestward to the Leeward Islands. Visible satellite pictures show a narrow band of clouds with possible showers associated with the front/trough. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic S of the front and N of the ITCZ due to the pressure gradient between these two features. Seas of 8-11 ft in northerly swell dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will reach from 31N55W to central Cuba tonight, then weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low pressure will move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas Wed and Wed night. Near-gale to gale force winds are possible from 26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the low pressure shifts eastward. Winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by the end of the week, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. $$ GR