000 AXNT20 KNHC 182315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 04N30W to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 17W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to 24N90W where the front stalls from that point to the southern Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. A trough extends from the Florida Keys to the NE Yucatan. Fresh to strong winds prevail north and west of the front in the central and western Gulf, S of 28N and W of 87W. Seas range 7-10 ft in this area. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will move southward across the SE Gulf into the Straits of Florida overnight, except lift northward over the western Gulf ahead of low pressure moving through northeast Mexico. The whole front will lift northward Tue as a warm front while the low pressure moves into the north- central Gulf. A trailing cold front over the western Gulf will dissipate through mid week. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast into the far northwest Gulf Thu night followed by near-gale or gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends across the NE Caribbean from 16N62W to 16N69W. No significant convection is noted with this feature. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean with seas ranging 5-8 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted in the NW Caribbean with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds are noted behind the front. Meanwhile, a dying stationary front extends from 31N44W to the northern Bahamas with a trough extending from the northern Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted ahead of the dying stationary front. Seas range 4-7 ft in this region. Along these boundaries, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 31N between 57W and 79W. A 1020 mb high pressure is located in the central Atlantic near 26N53W. Light to gentle winds are noted near this high. South of the high pressure, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic S of 22N and W of 25W. Seas ranging 8-12 ft continue to persist across the central Atlantic between 35W and 67W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends west of the Canary Islands near 31N23W to 21N40W with a trough extending from the tail-end of the front to the Lesser Antilles near 16N61W. Moderate to fresh W winds are behind the front with moderate S winds ahead of it. Seas up to 13 ft are noted near the front. For the forecast, the cold front reaching from 31N68W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida overnight, from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, then weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low pressure will move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Near-gale to gale force winds are likely from 26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the low pressure shifts eastward. Looking ahead, winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by the end of next week, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. $$ AReinhart