000 AXNT20 KNHC 152252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A large and powerful low pressure system north of the area will bring strong to gale force W to NW winds and very large seas through tonight to the waters east of 60W and north of 27N. Winds are forecast to reach gale force this evening for the area N of 30N between 46W and 56W with building seas to 25 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic tropical waters through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N15W to 03.5N31W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08.5N southward between 20W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front bisects the Gulf, extending southwestward from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Strong to severe thunderstorms occurring just ahead of the front earlier today have mostly shifted inland across Florida and into the adjacent Atlantic waters. A cluster of scattered moderate isolated strong thunderstorms is along the west coast front Sarasota to Marco Island and extends offshore some 120 nm. Moderate SW winds are southeast of the front to western Cuba. A 150 nm wide band of fresh to locally strong N to NE winds is directly behind the front, with strongest winds along the coast at Veracruz. High pressure has shifted to near the Texas coast and is yielding light winds across NW portions of the Gulf. Seas have diminished and are 4-7 ft north of the front and 2-4 ft southeast of the front and across the NW waters. For the forecast, the cold front will reach will reach from SW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Fri morning. The line of strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will continue to race eastward and exit the Gulf tonight. The front will become stationary Sat morning, extending from the Florida Straits to the W central Gulf. A secondary push of cold air over the NW Gulf will reinvigorate the front and cause it to reach from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. A large area of strong to near gale N to NE winds should occur over the N and central Gulf this weekend. The cold front should dissipate by Mon morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range, except to 9 ft offshore of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas, with the exception of 6 to 7 ft in the NE Caribbean passages due to NE swell from the Atlantic. The only notable convection is found within 120 nm from the western Panama coast associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that extends into the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Large N to NE swell will continue to propagate across the Tropical N Atlantic and through the Mona and Anegada Passages for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong S to SW winds to near 30 kt are offshore central and northeast Florida to near 75W this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front approaching the southeast U.S. coast. A broad band of strong to severe thunderstorms extend from the central Florida coast northeastward to beyond 31N76W. are observed in this region north of 28N between the northeast coast of Florida and 78W. Seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail across the waters north of the Bahamas, extending into the area of strong winds. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N64W, with a surface trough ahead of it analyzed from 31N49W to 23N63W. Morning scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong W to NW winds behind the front affecting the waters N of 29N between 56W and 65W, while fresh to strong SW winds were noted ahead of the front and north of the surface trough, encompassing the area N of 27N between 50W and 60W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range north of 20N and east of the trough, and 8 to 18 ft north of 24N between the trough and 68W. The remainder of the Atlantic subtropical waters is dominated by a narrow surface ridge, along with moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft in N swell stretching across the basin south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, a large and powerful low pressure system northeast of the area will bring strong to near gale force W to NW winds and very large seas through tonight to the waters east of 60W and north of 28N. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are offshore NE Florida this evening ahead of a cold front approaching the SE United States coast. The front will move off the coast this evening, reach from near 31N64W to the Florida Keys Sat morning, and dissipate on Sun. A second cold front will move off the the SE United States coast Sat night, extend from 31N58W to the SE Bahamas Mon morning, before weakening and becoming stationary from 28N55W to the SE Bahamas Tue morning. Large N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next several days. $$ Stripling