193 AXNT20 KNHC 131817 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022 Corrected Caribbean Sea section and Atlantic Ocean section, in order to include an upper level trough Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to 02N30W 02N42W, to the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through Andros Island in the Bahamas, to South Florida near 25N80W. A stationary front continues northwestward, from 25N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico, toward SE Louisiana. A warm front continues northwestward, from SE Louisiana, to north central Texas. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 24N northward. A surface trough extends from the coastal waters of NE Mexico to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Fresh SSE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are to the south of the Florida Panhandle, related to broad surface low pressure. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridging over the area will shift eastward through tonight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas. Fresh to locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf through tonight as the cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu night, and from the Straits of Florida to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. The front is expected to become stationary and weaken from the lower Straits of Florida to the far south- central Gulf Sat and Sat night. A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front Wed and Wed night across the NW and north- central Gulf. Strong N winds are expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for the central and eastern Gulf. Seas will build to a peak of about 9 ft in the NW Gulf Wed, then shift to the NE Gulf late Wed night into early Thu, before subsiding during the afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected Rainshowers are possible throughout the area, in clusters of scattered to broken low level clouds that are in the trade wind flow. Gentle to moderate trade winds cover the majority of the basin. The exception is within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia, where the winds are moderate to fresh. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern and southern sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are reaching 8 feet in the Mona Passage and in Anegada Passage, due to large northeasterly swell from the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. The base of an upper level trough is reaching the area that is between 50W and 60W near 10N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is 11N to 14N between 55W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 14N southward between 50W and 64W, including in the SE Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W in Colombia, southwestward, beyond the border of Panama and Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in a few cells of convective precipitation, in the Gulf of Uraba. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward. 24-hour rainfall totals, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, for the time period that ends at 13/1200 UTC, are: 0.28 in Trinidad. Weak high pressure ridging north of the Caribbean Sea is allowing for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Little change is expected through tonight. Then, winds will increase slightly across the basin beginning Wed as high pressure builds to the east of Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters for much of the week. Another large set of N swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic waters starting late on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 26N70W, toward the central Bahamas near 24N76W, through Andros Island, to South Florida near 25N80W. A stationary front continues northwestward, from 25N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico, toward SE Louisiana. A warm front continues northwestward, from SE Louisiana, to north central Texas. A surface trough curves from Haiti to 24N71W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from 21N northward. Fresh N winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet in mixed N wind waves and NE swell, are from the front northward. The wind speeds are gentle, and the sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet due to large long-period swell, for the Atlantic Ocean that is from the front southward and from the Bahamas eastward. The base of an upper level trough is reaching the area that is between 50W and 60W near 10N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is 11N to 14N between 55W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 14N southward between 50W and 64W, including in the SE Caribbean Sea. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 29N44W. One surface trough extends eastward from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 30N38W. A second surface trough extends southwestward from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 24N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate, in general, is from 20N northward between 20W and the 31N61W 24N76W cold front. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that is at the western edge of the Canary Islands, to a second 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 22N38W, to 20N60W. Mostly gentle winds, and elevated seas in large swell, are from 20N to 30N between 35W and 53W. A cold front extends from 31N61W to 26N70W to the central Bahamas and to South Florida. The front will reach from near 30N55W to the central Bahamas this evening, then weaken on Wed as high pressure builds in east of Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will come in behind this front today. Large long- period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days. A large and powerful low pressure system north of the area will bring strong to near gale force W winds Wed night through Thu night to the waters east of 65W and north of 27N. Very large seas can be expected in this area. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore NE Florida beginning Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N75W to West Palm Beach, Florida early Fri, and from near 31N64W to the Florida Keys early Sat. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern and central waters through Sat, while fresh west to northwest winds are expected behind the front. $$ mt/ja