000 AXNT20 KNHC 120456 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and extends to 08.5N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N19W to 05.5N41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N southward from 42W east to the west coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends into the northeastern Gulf from near Tampa, FL and continues northwestward to 29N85W, where it transitions to a stationary front that extends northward into the Florida panhandle. Scattered showers associated with the frontal boundary are observed north of 27N from the west coast of Florida to 90W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the Gulf with seas ranging mostly 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, quiescent conditions will prevail through Mon as a surface ridge over the area begins to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf Mon night into Tue night as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach from southwest Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night and from NW Cuba to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, decreasing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for the central and eastern Gulf. An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is currently affecting portions of the north-central and northeast Gulf in association with a weak stationary frontal boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of a weakening Atlantic cold front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward, crossing into the extreme NE Caribbean to 17N66W. The monsoon trough extends from the northwest coast of Colombia near 10N76, through eastern Panama, and southern Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Despite these features, fairly quiet weather prevails across the basin. Light to gentle N to NE winds are found across the E Caribbean to the east of 66W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft in mainly NE swell moving through the Caribbean Passage, where seas are as high as 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the southern half of the central Caribbean Sea, in the Windward Passage, and off the coast of SE Cuba in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate easterly winds or slower are elsewhere. Sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from Jamaica westward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet from Jamaica eastward. For the forecast, large long-period N to NE swell across the central Atlantic will be reinforced by another pulse of long- period swell during the early part of the week. This swell will continue to pass through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the next few days. High pressure north of the Caribbean is allowing for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds offshore Colombia during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to near Melbourne, Florida. A surface trough is analyzed southeast of the front from 28N77W to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted between the frontal boundary and surface trough north of 28.5N between 76W and the northeastern coast of Florida. Another cold front enters the central Atlantic waters through 31N33.5W to 17N60W, continuing across the waters and islands of the extreme NE Caribbean to 17N66W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the front to the north of 22N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted ahead of the front, from 23N to 27N between 30W and 36W. A low pressure center is located northwest of the front near 32N45W with an attendant trough that extends southwest to 29N53W. Scattered moderate convection with these features is observed north of 28N between 41W and 52W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong SW winds are found ahead of the front, north of 20N, while moderate to fresh broad cyclonic wind flow prevails north of the front and east of 63W. Large N and NW swell dominates much of the central and W Atlantic, producing wave heights of 8 to 15 ft north of the front, and 7 to 11 ft west of 67W to the Bahamas and north Florida coastal waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in north swell south of the front and into the deep tropics. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 25N24W. Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 10N to the cold front. Strong to near gale force SW winds prevail within 400 nm E of the front, and north of 20N. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 15 feet from 15N northward from 40W eastward. For the forecast, the central Atlantic cold front from 19N55W to 17N63W will weaken as it shifts east of the area by late tonight. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, producing high seas into late Tue. Long-period NE to E swell is expected to continue affecting the Florida offshore waters north of 27N during the next few days. Hazardous marine conditions are likely, especially east of the Bahamas through late Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore NE Florida beginning late Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Fri, and from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Fri night. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern and central waters, while fresh to strong west to northwest winds follow in behind the front. Seas will build with these winds. $$ Nepaul