028 
AXNT20 KNHC 111012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 03N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N, 
between 09W to 15W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm on 
either side of the ITCZ between 18W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends across southern Texas and Louisiana 
supporting scattered moderate convection N of 28N and W of 92W.  
The basin is dominated by a high pressure ridge. Winds are light 
to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of 
the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging will begin to shift eastward 
early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail today, then becoming moderate to fresh
southeast to south in the central Gulf late Mon night into early 
Wed. Winds may increase to locally strong speeds in the western 
Gulf late Mon night into early Tue evening as the front approaches
from the NW. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The 
front is expected to move across the NW Gulf on Wed, then reach 
from southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and 
lower pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh E-
NE winds in the central and NW basin, including the Windward 
Passage. Locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore 
Colombia. Winds are gentle in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 
generally 3-5 ft across the majority of the basin, except 5-7 ft 
offshore Colombia and 6-8 ft NE swell in the Mona and Anegada 
Passages.

For the forecast, large long-period northeast swell across the central
Atlantic will continue subsiding today before building again 
early this week as another swell event reaches the region. High 
pressure north of the Caribbean is allowing for gentle to 
moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except 
for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds offshore 
Colombia during the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A string of low pressure centers along a cold front extend 
N of the discussion area between 35W and 55W. The front extends 
from 31N38W to 20N69W. These lows are forecast to move SE through 
today, and then move across the NE portions of the discussion 
area. Strong to near-gale force winds prevail in the vicinity of 
the front mainly N of 22N between 27W-68W. Seas are estimated at 
11 to 18 ft N of the front and 8 to 14 ft elsewhere, with highest
seas N of 26N.

A weakening cold front in the eastern Atlantic extends from 
31N20W to 26N30W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the 
vicinity of this boundary, with seas in the 8-12 range. 

To the west, a surface trough extends near the Bahamas from 30N79W
to 23N75W. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. Seas to 8
ft prevail E of the trough.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it 
shifts east of the area tonight. Large long-period N to NE swell 
will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages
between the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, 
producing high seas into the start of the week. Long-period east 
swell is expected to reach the Florida offshore waters north of 
27N well into the week. Hazardous marine conditions are likely, 
especially east of the Bahamas through Mon. 

$$
ERA