802 AXNT20 KNHC 110408 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A string of low pressure centers along a western Atlantic front extend between 45W and 63W across the Atlantic just N of the discussion area. These lows are forecast to move SE through Sun, and move across the NE portions of the discussion area. Gale force NW winds cover the area between 60W and 66W to the N of 30N. Seas across this area are estimated at 14 to 18 ft. These conditions will diminish Sun morning as the low centers weaken and move more E along 30N while weakening. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N, between 17W to 23W. Isolated weak convection is observed within 150 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front has entered the far NE Gulf waters. Otherwise the basin is dominated by a high pressure ridge. Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, surface ridging will begin to shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through the weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh southeast to south in the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed. Winds may increase to locally strong speeds in the western Gulf late Mon night into early Tue evening as the front approaches from the NW. Seas will also build in the western Gulf. The front is expected to move across the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night, then reach from southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh E- NE winds in the central and NW basin, including the Windward Passage. Locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore Colombia. Winds are gentle in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the majority of the basin, except 5-7 ft offshore Colombia and 6-8 ft NE swell in the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, large long-period northeast swell across the central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight, subsiding on Sun before building again early next week as another swell event reaches the region. High pressure north of the Caribbean is allowing for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds offshore Colombia during the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings in the basin. A cold front, related to the low pressure centers mentioned in the special features section, continues to move south and eastward over the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N41W to 20N60W to 29N80W. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail north of 23N and east of 70W. Seas gradually increase north of the front from 8 to 16 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring east of the front where seas are 12-16 ft. Another cold front in the eastern Atlantic extends from 31N20W to 28N27W. Recent scatterometer data indicates winds have decreased below gale force and 12-16 ft westerly swell will slowly abate through Sun. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front associated to a large area of complex low pressure north of the area extends southwestward to 20N65W and to just east of the southeastern Bahamas. Gale-force winds behind the front N of 30N between 61W and 65W will diminish to just below gale-force early Sun morning as the complex area of low pressure shifts eastward and weakens. The cold front will weaken as it shifts east of the area by late Sun night. Large long- period north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week. Long-period east swell is expected to reach the Florida offshore waters north of 27N well into next week. Hazardous marine conditions are likely, especially east of the Bahamas through Mon. $$ Flynn