000 AXNT20 KNHC 101735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure center will approach from the N today to the area near 31N58W supporting gale force winds to develop north of 29N between 60W and 65W. Seas of 15 to 19 ft will prevail in the area of strongest winds. These conditions will dissipate by Sun morning as the low continues moving E while weakening. More information, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N27W to 24N34W. A recent ASCAT pass found gale force winds ahead of the front, mainly N of 23N between 27W and 32W where seas are rough to very rough. Showers and thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm of the front. The front will continue to lift northward today, allowing gales to subside and seas to gradually abate through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between the west coast of Africa and 19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure centered offshore the Mississippi River Delta. Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through the Sun night, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through the weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh southeast to south in the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed. Winds may increase to locally strong speeds in the western Gulf late Mon night into early Tue evening as the front approaches from the NW. The front is expected to move across the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night while weakening. Moderate northeast winds are expected behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass reports gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean and moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the central and western Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is allowing for fresh to strong winds to pulse offshore Colombia, where seas are up to 8 ft. Seas continue to be elevated to 6 ft near Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell originating from the strong low system in the central Atlantic. For the forecast, large long-period northeast swell across the central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight, subsiding on Sun before building again early next week as another swell event reaches the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings in the basin. A cold front, related to the low mentioned in the special features section, moved south and eastward over the western Atlantic waters. It enters the AOR near 31N50W and extends SW 23N62W, then curves northward and transitions to a stationary front near 27N74W. The stationary front extends to the FL/GA border. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in scatterometer data behind the boundaries, where seas are likely 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds cover a large area near the Tropical N Atlantic from the equator to 20N between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 10 ft in NW swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it shifts east of the area by late Sun night. Large long-period north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week. Long-period east swell is expected to reach the Florida offshore waters north of 27N well into next week. $$ MORA