000 AXNT20 KNHC 081002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Storm Warning: Showers and thunderstorms have increased since last evening near a large non-tropical area of 980 MB low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, near 29N51W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is now present in the NE semicircle, N of 25N between 43W and 53W. However, the system remains embedded within a frontal zone, that consists of an occluded front that extends E to 29N38W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and N of this boundary. The occluded front expected to become more pronounced later today as the low begins to move ENE at around 20 kt toward colder waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, while the system could show some subtropical characteristics today, its chances to fully transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Currently, a large area of gale force winds is associated with this low N of 23N between 44W and 60W. Within these gales is a zone of storm force winds of 50 kt in the NW quadrant, from about 29N to 32N between 51W and 56W. As the low moves ENE today, similar wind speeds and areas are expected into the afternoon, before winds subside below storm force this evening, yet gales continue through the week. There is an extensive area of rough, extremely hazardous seas in association with this storm-force low. Seas in excess of 20 ft reside N of 22N between 44W and 64W, with seas of 30 to 32 ft peaking in the area where storm force winds are occurring. An even broader area of seas of 12 ft or greater is located N of 19N between 40W and 70W, with large northerly swell already approaching the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Significant non-tropical development of this low is expected during the next couple of days, however, the risk for subtropical or tropical development is now low. More information about this system, including the associated Storm Warning, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Zone Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 09N, between 28W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb surface high is centered near the Florida Big Bend, causing gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas in the NE Gulf. This feature is also supporting areas of dense fog in the northern Gulf that will linger today. In the southern Gulf, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 3-5 ft seas. In the western Gulf, SE winds are moderate with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will meander in the vicinity of the NE Gulf through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate mainly SE winds will prevail into Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating fresh to locally strong NE winds in the central and western Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. In the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N winds prevail. Seas in the central and W Caribbean are 5-7 ft and seas in the E Caribbean 3-4 ft except 5-8 ft of N swell through the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, a strong low pressure system currently over the central Atlantic will continue to deepen during the next few days, maintaining NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to pulsing strong NE winds will affect the Caribbean Passages, the lees of the Greater Antilles, and offshore Colombia into Fri night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a storm force low pressure system, affecting the waters north of 18N between 35W and 75W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern prevails off central and northern Florida, with gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in the far western Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from the Canary Islands to 22N24W, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues NW to connect to the occluded front that is associated with the low pressure described in the Special Features section. Scattered moderate convection is impacting areas along and within 90 nm of the frontal boundary. To the north of the front, fresh W winds and seas of 9 to 14 ft dominate. South of this front, a 1015 mb high pressure centered just N of the Cabo Verde Islands is leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, large long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through Sat. $$ KONARIK