000 AXNT20 KNHC 061749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, centered near 26N54W and with a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms in the northern semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system. Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to 40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of 28N between 45W and 55W. Strong to near gale force winds are within 240 nm of the center. Winds in the N semicircle will increase through tonight and reach storm force Wed. Winds will then diminish slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu night. Seas are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W of the center, with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of 22N between 45W and 63W. The radius of hazardous seas will continue to expand over the next few days, with waves reaching as high as 30 ft to the N and W of the center Wed and Wed night. More information about this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N30W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis from 02N to 06N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03N to 07N between 29W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered offshore the Florida Big Bend is dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning, precluding any convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds dominate the eastern half of the Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less. Moderate S to SE return flow is over the Gulf west of 87W where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Buoy observations west of 94W are recording locally fresh winds, where seas are up to 5 ft. Fog within 30 nm of the northeastern Gulf coast is beginning to dissipate, but limited visibility may still exist in some areas. For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and lower pressure in the southern and eastern Caribbean is allowing for fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and south of Cuba and the Cayman Islands, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh winds covering the remainder of the western, southwestern, and central Caribbean west of 70W, where seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly moderate and northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages, due to long period northerly swell. No significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean this morning. For the forecast, low pressure across the central Atlantic will deepen during the next few days, inducing NE winds across much of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia into Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours. Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of the waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical development. The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating weather across much of the basin. The pressure gradient between this system and high pressure over the eastern U.S. is allowing for fresh to strong N winds north of 20N between 71W and 60W where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are between 71W and the Florida Peninsula where seas are 5 to 7 ft, except over the N Bahamas seas are below 6 ft. On the eastern side of the deepening low, a stationary front extends along 27N, supporting fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary out to 28W. The far eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure center located just north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow surrounds the high, remaining south of 27N and extending out to near 44W. North of 24N and east of 25W, winds increase to fresh from the SW due to an incoming cold front that extends from 31N23W to 26N29W. For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail in the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through Sat. $$ MORA