000 AXNT20 KNHC 061029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, centered near 26N57W and with a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 20N between 40W and 58W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the next few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and interact with a mid- latitude trough, limiting potential of tropical transition after that time. Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to 40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of a 26N57W to 28N48W line and E of 59E. These winds will increase through tonight and reach storm force Wed in the general area where gales are currently ongoing. Winds will then diminish slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu night. Seas are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W of the center, with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of 22N between 45W and 63W. The radius of hazardous seas will continue to expand over the new few days, with waves reaching as high as 30 ft to the N and W of the center Wed and Wed night. There is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. More information about this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W,to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04N29W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate convection extend along both of these boundaries between the Equator and 10N. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered over Florida is dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning, precluding any convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds dominate the eastern half of the Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh return southerly winds in the west. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the east and 2 to 4 ft in the west. Within 60 nm of the northern Gulf coast, patchy fog is restricting visibility to 1 mile or less in some areas. For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean and NW South America is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are mainly moderate and northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages, due to long period northerly swell. No significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean this morning. For the forecast, deepening low pressure across the central Atlantic during the next few days will induce NE winds across much of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia into Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours. Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of the waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical development. The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating weather across much of the basin. The area of strong winds associated with it extend N of 20N between 40W and 62W, with the area of 8 ft or greater seas being observed N of 15N, between 20W and 70W. For the remainder of the basin, the other main feature is a cold front in the eastern Atlantic that extends from the Azores to around 27N30W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and within 90 nm ahead of this front, with strong SW winds occurring ahead of it and fresh to strong W winds behind it. A deep layer trough along 47W from 10N to 20N is leading to scattered moderate convection between 42W and 50W. For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail in the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through Sat. $$ KONARIK