000 AXNT20 KNHC 050602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 05 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 24N53W. The low pressure center will be in nearly the same spot in about 24 hours or so, at 1005 mb. Gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 14 feet to 18 feet, are forecast to develop in 24 hours, from 29N to 31N between 48W and 50.5W. The gale-force winds, and sea heights that will range from 15 feet to 20 feet, are forecast to continue in more or less the same areas of the central Atlantic Ocean, for at least another 24 hours after the initial development period. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. METEO-FRANCE Marine Areas in the eastern Atlantic Ocean: gale-force winds are being forecast for parts of the next 24 hours or so, in MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, and in AGADIR. The OUTLOOK consists of: near gale or gale in the areas that are from 30N northward from 15W westward. Please, refer to the following website: weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.1952.0419 523846038.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to 03N20W 06N26W 08N47W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico, generally from 27N northward. The wind speeds are gentle in the lee of the front, with no significant convective precipitation. of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 20N southward from 93W eastward. NE winds are gentle to moderate, from the stationary front southward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, with the highest values in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and the sea heights are reaching 6 feet, locally, in the Yucatan Channel. The stationary front that is in the northern Gulf will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate much of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean Sea remains quiet, with generally clear and dry conditions in most of the basin. NE winds are moderate to fresh in the western and central Caribbean, including within the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, NE winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 2-4 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft seas in the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the W Caribbean. Localized seas to 8 ft are in the areas where the strong winds are impacting the waters that are in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands. A tight pressure gradient between building high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure in Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Winds will slowly diminish Mon and Tue, with little overall change in weather pattern anticipated during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about gale-force wind warnings, in the central Atlantic Ocean, and in the METEO-FRANCE marine areas. The dominant feature continues to be the 1006 mb low pressure center that is one of the subjects for the SPECIAL FEATURES section. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow is to the south of the 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 24N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the south of the 1006 mb low pressure center, between 47W and 60W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to 400 nm of the 1006 mb low pressure center in the N semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N to 28N between 58W and 62W. for the Central and Western Atlantic Ocean: sea heights that are greater than 8 feet are to the north of the line 31N36W 20N55W 21N70W 26N76W 31N68W. Sea heights that are greater than 12 feet are to the north of the line: 31N40W 24N56W 28N64W 31N62W. The comparatively highest sea heights are in the GALE WARNING area. The swell direction is from the NE. NE to N winds are fresh to strong in these areas of the high seas. for the Eastern Atlantic Ocean: the sea heights are 8 feet or greater to the north of a line from the coast of Western Sahara near 31N10W to 23N22W to 31N31W, with gales with highest seas in the EAST ATLANTIC Ocean GALE WARNING areas. The swell direction is from the N. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail E of 70W. Low pressure just E of the area near 24N54W will drift north through midweek, then turn E and move away from the area late this week. This will bring additional strong winds to the NE waters Mon, likely increasing to gales Tue night and continuing into Thu. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas through the week. $$ mt/sk