000 AXNT20 KNHC 041744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 24N51W. NE to E Winds have diminished to near-gale force north of 28N between 46W and 51W. Seas are 15-19 ft within the warning area. NE to E winds will remain near-gale force today and tomorrow, allowing seas to subside to 11-15 ft. Winds will return to gale force Monday evening as the low drifts northwest, with seas building to 13-16 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the following offshore zones: MADEIRA through 05/0900 UTC, and CANARIAS through 05/0000 UTC. Winds to Force 8, with severe gusts, are currently underway in these zones. Seas are 12-16 ft in N swell. Additional warnings have been issued for developing gales in the following offshore zones: AGADIR from 05/0300 to 05/1500 UTC, and CADIZ from 05/1200 to 05/2100 UTC. Please refer to the following website: http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N18W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 05N52W near the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 03N to 08N between 15W and 23W. Some showers are noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a weakening stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to just south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Winds are gentle in the lee of the front with no significant convection noted. A trough is located 60 nm offshore and parallel to the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted in the far SW Bay of Campeche near the trough. NE winds are gentle to moderate across the the basin south of the stationary front. Seas are 3-5 ft, highest in the Bay of Campeche, and locally 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate much of the week. Patchy fog may restrict visibility across portions of the NW waters, S of the front, today. Please refer to coastal Dense Fog Advisories issued by your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean remains quiet, with generally clear and dry conditions across most of the basin. NE winds are moderate to fresh in the western and central Caribbean, including within the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, NE winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 2-4 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft seas in the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the W Caribbean. Localized seas to 8 ft are present where the strong winds are impacting waters in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between building high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area today, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will slowly diminish for the start of the week, with little overall change in weather pattern anticipated during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on multiple GALE WARNINGS. The dominant feature continues to be the low pressure described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A well-defined trough extends from 27N42W to the low at 24N51W to 22N58W to 28N63W. Scattered moderate convection near the trough is from 23N to 29N between 55W and 60W. The shear line and western sections of the previously analyzed cold front have dissipated, with only a weak cold front extending from 31N36W to 28N48W. Scattered moderate convection near the cold front is north of 28N between 38W and 41W. In the Central and Western Atlantic, a large area of seas greater than 8 ft is north of a line from 31N36W to 20N55W to 21N70W to 26N76W to 31N68W. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of a line from 31N40W to 24N56W to 28N64W to 31N62W. Highest seas are in the GALE WARNING area. Swell direction is NE. NE to N winds are fresh to strong in these areas of high seas. In the Eastern Atlantic, seas are 8 ft or greater north of a line from the coast of Western Sahara near 31N10W to 23N22W to 31N31W,, with gales with highest seas in the EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. Swell direction is N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, strong NE to E winds will develop E of 70W today. Low pressure currently E of the area near 24N52W will drift W then N through the week, bringing additional strong winds to the NE waters for much of next week, with gales possible starting Tue night. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas for much of the week. $$ Mahoney