000 AXNT20 KNHC 020554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border across 08N20W to 07N24W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the trough from 02N to 08N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 22W. An ITCZ then continues from 07N24W across 08N40W to just northeast of the French Guyana-Brazil border at 05N51W. Patchy showers are present up to 140 nm north and 80 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends westward from the western Atlantic across the northwest Bahamas to near the Florida Keys, then continues as a stationary front to the central Gulf. Patchy showers are present along and up to 40 nm south of this boundary between the Florida Straits and 89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 40 nm south of the stationary front west of 89W. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the western edge of the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Coupling with divergent winds aloft, convergent trades are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across the central, eastern and the northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the west-central and southwest Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary/cold front will dissipate Fri. Another cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Sat night, then stall, weaken and dissipate by early Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large dome of 1035 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic US States along with a 1021 Bermuda High are sustaining NE to ENE trades across the entire Caribbean Basin. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern and west-central basin. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found south of Cuba and Hispaniola, near the Windward Passage and north of northwest Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident for the rest of the northwest, west-central and central basin. Moderate trades with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the eastern basin. For the forecast, winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as high pressure builds north of the area. Winds will slowly diminish through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N65W to the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring along and up to 100 nm south of this front. A robust upper-level low at the central Atlantic near 21N50W is producing scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 41W and 52W. For additional convection in the Atlantic Basin, read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident from the cold front westward to the coast of Georgia and Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist south of the cold front to the Greater Antilles between 60W and the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southeasterly trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present at the central Atlantic north of 18N between 35W and 50W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 10N between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles/60W. South of 10N, gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft in southerly swell are noted west of 25W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will become stationary near 25N by Fri night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters. Long-period N to NE swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend. $$ Chan