000 AXNT20 KNHC 011804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Dec 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues to 06N30W, to 05N40W, to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between the west coast of Africa and 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed from Naples, Florida westward about 300 nm to the central Gulf where it transitions to a stationary front. The stationary front extends southwestward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Recent buoy and platform observations found fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas following the front over the northern Gulf. Seas may peak up to 9 ft in the NW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be within 60 nm of the boundary, as well as in the northwest Gulf offshore the NE Mexico coast. Moderate E to SE winds are ahead of the front with 3 to 5 ft seas, except within the Florida Straits where there are fresh east winds. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from near Fort Myers, Florida to 25N89W and to southern Texas by early This evening, then gradually dissipate through Fri. Strong high pressure building behind the front will shift eastward through Fri as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. This next front may move over the far northern Gulf on Sat afternoon, then stall, weaken and dissipate by early Mon. No significant impacts on winds and seas are expected from this front. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will linger over the southeastern and south-central Gulf waters Fri night through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and Central Caribbean, with fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba over the Cayman Islands. Fresh winds may also be present in the Windward passage, south of Hispaniola ,and offshore the NW coast of Colombia, where seas are likely between 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted in the visible satellite imagery in the NW Caribbean, closer to the Gulf of Honduras, and south west of Jamaica. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through this afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as high pressure builds north of the area. Winds will slowly diminish through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from Nova Scotia southwestward over the western Atlantic to Miami, FL. A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong N to NNE winds following the front, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the northern Bahamas and offshore south FL. Ahead of the front, over the Bahamas and the western Atlantic waters out to 50W NE winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere over the Atlantic, a large amplitude surface trough stretches along 51W from 30N to 12N. Aided by a large upper level trough, scattered convection continues east of this surface feature from 20N to 30N between 40W and 52W. Fresh to strong east winds due to the pressure gradient are noted from 15N to 28N between the trough axis and the west coast of Africa. Seas continue to subside in this area west of 60W, ranging from 6 to 9 ft, peaking at 10 ft in the area of strongest winds from 18N to 25N between 35W and 42W. Elsewhere over the Atlantic, moderate winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N63W to South Florida tonight, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend. $$ Mora