105 AXNT20 KNHC 010558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Dec 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near Freetown to 08N15W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the trough from 05N to 07N between the Liberia coast and 15W. An ITCZ continues from 08N15W across 06N30W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is creating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches southwestward from near Tampa, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 90 nm north of the front between 94W and the Mexican coast, while scattered showers are found along and up to 70 nm north of the rest of the front. Divergent southerly winds aloft are coupling with convergent trades to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident behind the cold front. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail south of the cold front, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from near Fort Myers, Florida across 25N89W to southern Texas by early Thu evening, then gradually dissipate through Thu night. Strong high pressure building behind the front will shift eastward through Fri as another, weaker cold front approaches eastern Texas. This next front may move over the far northern Gulf on Sat afternoon before stalling, then weaken and dissipate by early Mon. No significant impacts on winds and seas are expected from this front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will linger over the southeastern and south-central Gulf Fri night through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N67W to the northwest Bahamas. This feature continues to sustain a NE to ENE trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are producing isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted near the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and just north of Barranquilla, Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are observed across the eastern and central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are found over the northwestern and southwestern basin. The exception is gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas just north of Panama. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Thu night. Aerial coverage of strong winds will increase through Sat night as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches southwestward from south of the Carolina coast across 31N79W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers are present near and up to 60 nm south of the front. Another cold front curves southwestward from the north central Atlantic through 31N50W to 26N61W, then continues as a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Patchy showers are seen near and up to 60 nm south of this boundary. A robust upper-level trough near 28N51W is causing scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 42W and 53W. A surface trough is producing scattered showers east of Trinidad and Tobago from 07N to 14N between 51W and 57W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present west of the first cold front to the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 10 to 12 ft seas in northerly swell are seen near and northwest of the second cold front. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ENE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found over the western Atlantic north of 20N between 52W and the central/southern Florida coast. To the south and east, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ESE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas in northerly swell are evident north of 21N between the northwest African coast and 52W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are seen north of 04N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic cold front will become stationary to the central Bahamas before weakening tonight and dissipate on Thu. The western Atlantic cold front will reach from near 31N63W through the NW Bahamas to Southern Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend. Of note: November 30 marks the end of the Hurricane Season across the Atlantic basin, that includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. In total, this hurricane season produced 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes and two intensified to major hurricanes. An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The 2022 season saw three hurricane landfalls along the coast of U.S. mainland. Hurricane Ian made landfall fists as a Category 4 storm in Cayo Costa, Florida, and again as a Category 1 in Georgetown, South Carolina. Hurricane Nicole made landfall as a Category 1 in north Hutchinson Island, Florida. Fiona made landfall outside the mainland U.S. as a Category 1 near Punta Tocon, Puerto Rico. Major Hurricane Ian tied for the fifth- strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S. $$ Chan