000
AXNT20 KNHC 262250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force SW winds N of 30N between 45W
and 55W ahead of a cold front will gradually diminish this evening 
as the associated low pressure N of the region moves NE away from
the area. However, seas in excess of 12 ft will prevail into Sun
night as northwesterly swell propagates in. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the 
website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more 
details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 
10N19W to 05N33W and to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ from 19W to 45W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from just N of Tampa Bay to near the mouth of
the Mississippi River. The front continues inland across southern
Louisiana to a 1007 mb low pressure center along the coast near
the Texas-Louisiana border. A cold front extends south of this low
to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection extends along and 120 nm E of the cold front, N
of 24N. Within this area of convection offshore eastern Louisiana,
an area of near-gale SW winds have developed ahead of the cold
front. Behind the front, front to strong NW winds dominate waters
N of 25N, with highest winds near the coast. To the S of 25N,
moderate to fresh winds dominate behind the cold front. Ahead of
the front, fresh S winds are occurring in the north central Gulf,
N of 26N and W of 87W, with moderate or less winds elsewhere. 
Seas behind the front are 5 to 7 ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas ahead of 
it. 

For the forecast, The cold front will weaken as it moves through 
the northeast Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong winds behind the front 
will diminish tonight in the western Gulf and on Sun in the 
northern Gulf waters. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
front and prevail through midweek, when a cold front moves into 
the NW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The only significant feature in the basin is the eastward
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends along 9N
between Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the trough are are occurring within 90 nm of the
Nicaraguan coast. There is also scattered moderate convection
along the coast of Venezuela. 

A fairly tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to
the NE and lower pressures over South America is leading to
moderate to fresh E trades across the basin. Seas are generally 4
to 7 ft, but 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will 
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through 
midweek as a strong ridge remains north of the area. Gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas expected elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for details on gale
conditions along 30N to the SE of Bermuda this evening. 

The cold front responsible for the aforementioned gales extends
from 31N54W to 24N70W to the NW Bahamas and into South Florida. N
of 27N, ahead of the cold front extending east 120 nm, numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing. Winds behind
the front are moderate to fresh and northerly, with gentle winds S
of the front, but N of 20N. The exception to this is N of 27N
between 40W and 60W, where fresh to strong SW winds dominate. 
Seas to the W of 50W are being dominated by N to NW swell, with 
seas of 8 to to 12 ft N of 25N and E of 70W, with 5 to 7 ft seas 
elsewhere.

Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N30W to 27N42W. No
significant convection is associated with this front, and winds on
both sides of the front are light to gentle. Elsewhere, S of 20N,
moderate to fresh NE to E trades dominate.  

E of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough extends from 22N52W to
the Venezuela - Guyana border. This trough is inducing a broad
area of scattered moderate convection S of 20N between 50W and the
Lesser Antilles. Seas E of 50W are mainly 6 to 8 ft, but 8 to 12
ft in N swell N of 27N between 30W and 50W. 
 
For the forecast W of 50W, strong to gale force winds prevailing
north of 29N W of the cold front will diminish this evening. This
cold front will stall and weaken along 23N by late Sun. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region late tonight through Sun. 
Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida Sun ahead of 
another cold front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This 
front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Mon night, 
then from 31N59W to the Straits of Florida Tue night before 
starting to slowly weaken. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front. 

$$
KONARIK