000 AXNT20 KNHC 231750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ stretches westward from west of Liberia at 04N12W across 06N35W to near French Guiana at 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 60 nm north, and 120 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough runs northwestward from the eastern Bay of Campeche to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Another surface trough is near 24N89W. These features are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Central and western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist at the western-central and southwestern Gulf. Moderate ENE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest fo the Gulf. For the forecast, a surface trough combined with high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the central and southwestern Gulf through this morning before diminishing in the afternoon. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move into the northwestern Gulf late Thu night. Winds may reach near gale force behind the front off the coast of Mexico west of 95W Fri into Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the weakening front reaches the eastern Gulf and broad high pressure builds over the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the west-central and southwestern basin. An upper-level low near the ABC Islands are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Windward and Leeward Islands. Otherwise, an easterly trade-wind pattern continues across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present for the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for western basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds across the central and northeastern Caribbean this morning, as well as through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin tonight, except for occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front stretches west-southwestward from 31N46W to southern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough is causing similar conditions near the northeast coast of Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1025 mb Azores High is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 24N between the northwest African coast and 43W, including the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell are seen farther west north of 24N between 43W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 07N to 24N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough will move across the waters north of 28N tonight and Thu, then stall and dissipate along 27N Thu night. Looking ahead, another front will move south into the waters north of 28N Fri night, and then shift east of the area through Sat. Yet another front may move off the northeast Florida coast Sun. $$ Chan