000 AXNT20 KNHC 221718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends to the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W. The ITCZ continues from 07N12W to 05N32W to near the border of Suriname and Guyana at 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N between 18W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico to near 21N87W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along and north of the front to 29N. This convection continues into the south-central Gulf where a 1015 mb low is analyzed near 20N92W with an attendant surface trough extending NW from the low to the Texas Coast near 27N97W. Another area of scattered showers is observed north of 27N between 88W and the trough axis. The tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge to the north and lower pressures associated with these features is maintaining fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Gulf. In the SW Gulf waters, N-NW strong to near gale force winds are found, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail south of 27N and west of 91W, peaking around 12 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas of 4-7 ft are found in the northern and eastern Gulf waters, north of 28N and east of 87W, with the exception of 2-4 ft in the nearshore coastal waters. For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sat as the weakening front reaches the southeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean near the southern Panama coast to a 1009 mb low near 09N77W. Fresh easterly trade winds are persist from the eastern to southwest Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the eastern part of the basin, including the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. In the NW Caribbean, moderate trades prevail along with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid week. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 29N55W to 28.5N60W and continues as a stationary front southwestward to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are present near and north of the frontal boundary west of 63W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong ENE winds north of the boundaries where seas are 7-10 ft. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser Antilles, especially from 06N to 15N and between 55W and 61W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure centered south-southwest of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly winds across most of the central and eastern Atlantic south of 27N. Seas are 7-10 ft within these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas primarily in SE swell are found north of 27N under the high pressure. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will weaken and drift north to along 31N by this evening before moving eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, a another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat. $$ Nepaul