000 AXNT20 KNHC 220908 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 04.5N35W to near the border of Suriname and Guyana at 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 19W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to near 22N89W. A few thunderstorms are active along the front north of the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough extends from 27N97W to 19N95W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. The tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge to the north and lower pressures associated with these boundaries is maintaining fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Gulf. N-NW strong to near gale force winds are found in the SW Gulf waters, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail south of 28N and west of 86W, peaking around 12 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz as well as east of the trough to 90W per recent buoy observations. Seas of 4-7 ft are found in the northern and eastern Gulf waters, north of 28N and east of 86W. For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sat as the weakening front reaches the southeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama to a 1008 mb low near 10N77.5W. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the waters of the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily south of 13N and west of 77W. A few showers are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the NE Caribbean, offshore NW Colombia and the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas to 8 ft occurring north of the Panama Canal near 13N79W. Moderate trades prevail in the NW Caribbean along with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid week. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 29.5N55W to 29N61W, then is stationary to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are present near and to the north of the frontal boundary. An earlier scatterometer pass found fresh to strong ENE winds north of the boundaries where seas are 7-10 ft. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser Antilles, especially from 06N to 15N and between 45W and 61W. A pair of 1026 mb and 1027 mb high centers centered south- southwest of the Azores dominate the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly winds across most of the central and eastern Atlantic south of 27N. Seas are 7-10 ft within these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-6 ft seas primarily in SE swell are found north of 29N under the high pressure. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken and drift north to along 31N by this evening before moving eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, a another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat. $$ Lewitsky