225 AXNT20 KNHC 202343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to a low pressure 1014 mb near 23N86W then SW to the western Bay of Campeche near 21N96W. Strong high pressure building behind the front supports strong to gale force winds north and west of the front and low pressure. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds across the basin. The low will weaken to a trough while the front remain stalled across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 06N32W to 07N46W. A surface trough is located west of the ITCZ, from 14N46W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 17N between 35W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for further details about an ongoing Gale Warning. As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to a low pressure 1014 mb near 23N86W then SW to the western Bay of Campeche near 21N96W. Strong high pressure building behind the front supports strong to gale force winds north and west of the front and low pressure. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds across the basin. Aside from the winds and seas hazards in the gulf, scattered showers are along the western Florida coastal waters while scattered showers and tstms are ongoing just to the west of the Florida Keys to 85W and S of 26N. For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough while the front remain stalled across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold front will move across the entire basin Thu through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered heavy showers and tstms prevail across the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and NW Colombia offshore waters being supported by upper level divergence and the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. With the proximity of a frontal boundary in the SE Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean remains weak, thus leading to the continuation of gentle to moderate trade winds with seas of 3-5 ft. A strong ridge in the central Atlantic along with surface high pressure building behind a pair of fronts affecting the northern Bahamas, are maintaining fresh winds in the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the E basin and 8-10 ft in the central and portions of the SW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will arrive from the east across the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed, as a broad trough moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A new cold front has entered the waters off NE Florida today. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will drift N tonight and Mon. The new cold front will move southeast and merge with the old front along about 29N Mon, then will stall from south of Bermuda to central Florida Mon night. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging SE again across the waters N of 28N through Wed night, then dissipate by Thu. $$ Ramos