000 AXNT20 KNHC 200214 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a 1014 mb low in the NW Gulf near 26N96W is drifting northward. A warm front extends from the low SE to 24N90W while a cold front extends SW towards Veracruz, Mexico. These low pressure features combined with high pressure north of the area are supporting gale force N to NE winds across the NW offshore waters as well as the E of Mexico offshore waters N of Tampico. Dangerous seas in the 8 to 17 ft range are in those regions. East of the warm front a stationary front continues SE to the Florida Straits. Winds N of the front and across the eastern half of the basin are fresh to strong from the NE to E with seas in the 5 to 10 ft range. Strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere in the north-central basin with seas to 11 ft. Gale force winds will spread across the north-central basin, east-central basin, and western Bay of Campeche through Sun early in the evening with seas peaking to 18 ft tonight. Winds across the central and eastern portions of the basin will gradually diminish Mon night through Wed while winds across the SW offshore waters will maintain near gale force speeds and diminish Wed night. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. East Atlantic Gale Winds and Rough Seas: A tight pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb Azores High and lower pressures in NW Africa are causing winds and seas to increase and build. Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds through 20/12 UTC in the Agadir Marine Zone, and through 20/00 UTC in the Tarfaya Marine Zone. Please read the High Seas Warning and Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 04N41W. There is not significant convection associated with either the African monsoon/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning across the western Gulf of Mexico. Aside from the current conditions described above in terms of winds and seas, scattered showers and tstms are affecting the northern basin N of 26N and the central gulf waters from 22N to 26N between 84W and 93W. For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough and drift S through Mon as high pressure strengthens N of the Gulf. The pressure gradient will strengthen the winds and produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico this evening through Sun night, with seas to 18 ft. A cold front will develop E to W across the central Gulf tonight and shift southward, then stall across the south-central waters early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A low pressure in the SW Caribbean embedded in the E Pacific extension of the monsoon trough continues to fuel numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 16N and W of 77W. With a steady ridge in place N of the area, trade winds across the most of the basin remain fresh with locally strong winds in the north-central and south-central Caribbean and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. In the NW Caribbean, a weaker pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate trade winds with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward across the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning and Rough Seas in the east Atlantic. A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda across the Central Bahamas then continues as a frontal trough to NW Cuba. Winds across the SW Atlantic waters are moderate to fresh S of 27N, except for locally strong winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward Passage. Seas in this region are in the 5 to 7 ft range. In the subtropical waters E of 45W winds are from the NE to E and in the 20 to 30 kt wind speed range with rough seas ranging between 8 to 11 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken further and begin to drift N tonight. Tonight into early Sun, another cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida, and move southeast before stalling from south of Bermuda to extreme S Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging SE again across the waters N of 28N through Wed night. $$ Ramos