460 AXNT20 KNHC 191751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low in the W Gulf near 24.5N96W is drifting northward. A sharp trough extends from the low to 19N91W. These features combined with high pressure north of the area are supporting fresh to strong winds across the northern and central Gulf west of 88W and seas of 6-10 ft. The low and trough will drift north over the weekend. A tightening gradient between them and a surface ridge across the Gulf States will cause winds to increase and reach strong to gale force, and seas reaching 12-16 ft in the NW Gulf by late this afternoon. These winds will then spread into the west-central and north-central Gulf, then southward through Sun, including the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Seas will peak around 17 ft late tonight through Sun morning. Gale force winds should diminish across much of the area by Sun afternoon, except offshore Veracruz where they will diminish late Sun night. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then significantly Tue through Wed. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. East-Central Atlantic Gale Winds and Rough Seas: A tight pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb Azores High and lower pressures in NW Africa are causing winds and seas to increase and build. Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds through 20/12 UTC in the Agadir Marine Zone, and through 20/00 UTC in the Tarfaya Marine Zone. Please read the High Seas Warning and Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N09W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 01N37W. Weak showers are noted within 60 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning. Outside of the influence of the developing storm system in the western Gulf, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail in the remaining waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found in the eastern Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. A surface trough extends from near 19N92W to 24N95W. Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted east of the trough axis, while NW winds are observed west of the trough axis. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, a 1012 mb low in the W Gulf near 24.5N96W is drifting northward. A sharp trough extends from the low to 19N91W. These features combined with high pressure north of the area are supporting fresh to strong winds across the northern and central Gulf west of 88W. The low and trough will drift north over the weekend. The pressure gradient between this low pres and new high pres across the south-central U.S. will strengthen the winds and produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon through Sun night while a cold front develops across the northeast Gulf and drops southward. The front will stall across the south-central waters by Sun night. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then significantly Tue through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The East Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea through northern Costa Rica and extends eastward to NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 11N81W. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is seen on satellite imagery, primarily W of 78W and S of 16N. A weak surface trough is also present near the Bay Islands of Honduras and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the region. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly wind trades are evident in the central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds noted off NW Colombia and southern Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are present in the eastern and NW Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds for the next several days, pulsing to strong at night in the central Caribbean this weekend. A shear line from central Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico will gradually dissipate today. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning and Rough Seas in the east-central Atlantic. A stationary front extends from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas and a few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Fairly tranquil weather conditions persist in the rest of western tropical Atlantic, W of 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found S of 25N and W of 55W. Moderate or weaker winds are noted N of 25N, along with seas of 3-6 ft. A large upper level low is quite evident on water vapor imagery near 18N52W and at the surface, a trough extends from 24N47W to 13N51W. Another surface trough stretches from 17N46W to 11N47W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery from 10N to 21N and between 40W and 54W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge near the Azores. The pressure gradient due to the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly winds covering most of the central and eastern Atlantic, especially E of 50W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the waters NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will wash out and begin to retreat later today. Tonight into early Sun, another cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida, and move southeast before stalling from south of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before moving SE again across the far NW waters through Wed night. $$ DELGADO