000 AXNT20 KNHC 190208 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale winds in the AGADIR and TARFAYA Marine Zones as strong high pressure builds behind an approaching cold front. Gales began this afternoon in Agadir and earlier this evening in Tarfaya. Both gale events are forecast to continue through at least 19/12Z in both zones. Seas will range 10-14 ft in the highest winds, with a NW to N swell direction. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico is expected to drift north through the weekend. The gradient between this low pressure and high pressure across the south- central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico beginning 20/2100 UTC. Seas will build to 12-16 ft in highest winds. Conditions should gradually improve early next week. For more information, please see the Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 05N31W and continues west of a surface trough from 06N36W to 07N48W. The surface trough is from 04N33W to 11N33W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 14W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a new GALE WARNING for gale force winds beginning 20/2100 UTC. At 2100 UTC, a sharp surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 19.5N91W to 1017 mb low pres near 21N95W to extreme S Texas. High pressure to the north of the area is supporting strong winds to the north of the trough to 28N, and to the W of 88W all the way to the E Mexican coast. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft in this region. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also in the Florida Straits and the Yucatan channel due to the pressure gradient between the ridge across most of the gulf and lower pressure associated with a frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the low and trough will drift N over the weekend. The pressure gradient between this low pres and new high pres across the south-central U.S. will strengthen the winds and produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico Sat afternoon through Sun night. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then significantly Tue through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line, remnants of a stationary front are in the NW Caribbean generating numerous heavy showers from the Gulf of Honduras to the coastal waters of central and western Cuba. Scattered showers are in the SW Caribbean associated with a low pressure off the coast of central Panama, which is embedded in the E Pacific extension of the monsoon trough. With surface ridging being in place N of the area in both the SW N Atlantic waters and the central Atlantic, trade winds remain moderate to fresh basin-wide with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several days, pulsing to strong at night in the central Caribbean this weekend. A shear line across the NW Caribbean will gradually dissipate through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build across the far NW Caribbean through tonight. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an East Atlantic Gale Warning. As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N65W across the Central Bahamas to N central Cuba with showers affecting the Bahamas and adjacent NE offshore waters. Surface ridging is across the remainder central and eastern Atlantic subtropical waters with a cold front extending from NW Africa across the Canary Islands to 30N30W. Moderate to fresh E winds are S of 27N in the SW and central Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE wind will prevail from the western Bahamas through the Straits of Florida, to the N of the front, through tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Early Sun, another cold front will enter the waters of NE Florida, and move SE before stalling from S of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida late Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift N to along 31N early Wed before moving SE again across the far NW waters. $$ Ramos