000 AXNT20 KNHC 171015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from South Florida across the SE Gulf of Mexico into the central Bay of Campeche. The front will move just SE of the basin by this evening. Strong to gale force northerly winds prevail within about 120 nm of the Mexican coast to the W of the front. Strong high pressure building over Texas will tightening the pressure gradient across the Gulf through Fri. As a result, expect increasing winds and building seas across most of the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf through early Fri. A trough or low pressure is forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. This pattern could bring gale conditions over most of the western Gulf, and strong to near gale force winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf late Sat through Sun night. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone near 07N13W, and continues to 07N16W. The ITCZ extends 07N16W to 09N32W to 06N45W to 10N55W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs from 12N32W to 05N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 15W AND 45W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough continues to enhance convection across the Atlantic offshore waters of Panama, mainly S of 11N between 76W and 82W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by early Fri afternoon. However, weather conditions will deteriorate again across the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend as a trough or low pressure develops. Please read the Special Features section above for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds over the central Gulf. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within the area of gale force winds in the SW Gulf, and 8 to 10 ft over the west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, is noted over most of the Gulf region. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is near the southern end of the front over SE Mexico. For the forecast, please see the Special Features section. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean, with fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia. Mainly fresh NE winds are seen across the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the central Caribbean, 4 to 6 across the eastern part of the basin, and 3 to 5 ft over the NW Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed along 78W. Scattered showers are near the trough axis. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scatered passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late today, and stall across the NW Caribbean Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the far NW Caribbean through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N76W and continues SW to South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just ahead of the front and just N of the NW Bahamas. A recent ASCAT pass show moderate to fresh NW winds in the wake of the front with seas of 4 to 6 ft based on buoy observations. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure located near 32N39W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over much of the east and central tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell continues to propagate across most of forecast waters E of 55W with seas of 7 to 10 ft based on altimeter data. Seas have increased just E of the Madeira and Canary Islands where an altimeter pass indicates seas of 10 to 14 ft. An upper-level trough extending over the east-central Atlantic continues to generate some shower activity. For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will move SE and stall from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida tonight. Fresh N winds will briefly follow the front through early this morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. $$ GR