000 AXNT20 KNHC 161758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 29N82W in Florida, to just to the south of the Tampa metropolitan area, to 22N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. NW gale-force winds are from 19N to 20N between 95.5W and 96W. The sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet from 93W westward, from the cold front northward. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 10 feet to 15 feet, during the next 48 hours, from 19N to 24N between 95W and 98W, including within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Please, read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland, reaching the western sections of Senegal. The ITCZ is along 08N16W 08N25W 05N30W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough breaks up the ITCZ between 30W and 37W. The ITCZ continues along 05N37W 06N44W 10N49W 10N52W. A second surface trough is along 52W/54W from 16N southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from the ITCZ to 13N between 44W and 50W, in an area of speed shear. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 15N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds for the next 48 hours. A cold front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 29N82W in Florida, to just to the south of the Tampa metropolitan area, to 22N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 15 feet from 93W westward, to the north of the cold front. Upper level westerly winds are moving through the entire area. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are elsewhere, from the cold front northward and northwestward. Fresh to strong northerly winds are elsewhere in the wake of the front. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are to the south and to the southeast of the cold front. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from 90W eastward, to the north of the cold front. A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche this morning and will move SE and extend across the SE Gulf on Thu morning, and move just SE of the basin by Thu evening or Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force within 120 nm of the Mexican coast follow the front. Strong high pressure will begin to build over Texas today, tightening the gradient across the Gulf region. As a result, expect increasing winds and building seas across most of the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf late today through Thu night. High seas will build over the SW Gulf by late Thu. Looking ahead, a trough or low pressure is forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. This system could bring gale conditions over most of the western Gulf, and strong winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 73W/74W from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the area. High level moisture is pushing northward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers span the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are in the eastern and the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are close to the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba, particularly in the Jardines de la Reina Islands. The comparatively highest sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet mostly, elsewhere, from Jamaica eastward and southward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.22 in Guadeloupe. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, southwestward, through eastern Panama and the southern part of Panama that is along 81W, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward, from 74W westward. The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse off Colombia tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, with seas building in the far NW Caribbean Thu through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 29N82W in Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 26N northward from 60W westward. An upper level trough is along 28N43W 19N47W, to the central parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 18N northward between 30W and 50W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W eastward. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1025 mb high pressure center and lower pressures in the deep tropics, supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in much of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to locally strong winds are from the 52W/54W surface trough eastward. Northerly swell continues in most of forecast waters from 50W eastward, and the sea heights there range from 6 feet to 9 feet. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 50W westward. A cold front is exiting the NE Florida coast this morning, and will move SE and reach from 31N73W to south Florida by Thu morning, and from 31N70W to western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front on Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh northerly winds behind it. $$ mt